【美高收債】2022年1月基金評論

市場總覽:

由於市場投資人擔心聯準會將加快速度取消貨幣刺激措施,美國股票和公司債券在1月份遭到拋售;此外,儘管Omicron爆發的疫情對經濟活動造成壓力,但美國通膨數據仍居高不下,而第四季度財報喜憂參半,減少了財報將優於預期的跡象。

隨著市場消化聯準會將實施緊縮政策,1月份美國公債殖利率曲線走升,在此過程中趨於平緩;2年期殖利率上升45個基點至1.18%,10年期殖利率上升27個基點至1.79%,30年期殖利率上升21個基點至2.11%。

美國高收益債券於1月被拋售;該資產最初在股市疲軟的情況下表現出色,但由於資金外流以及利率波動對BB級債券造成壓力,利差在月底擴大;美銀美國高收益債券限制指數在1月報酬為-2.74%,指數利差擴大53個基點至364個基點。

評級較高的債券導致1月份的負報酬,因為美國公債的拋售也削弱了BB級債券的表現:

• 1月:BB -3.28%、B -2.20%、CCC及以下 -1.89%

1月份所有產業皆表現不佳;核心消費(-3.91%)、通訊(-3.42%)和零售銷售(-3.33%)領跌,而資本財(-1.96%)、娛樂休閒(-2.03%)和交通(-2.12%)表現相較基準指數優於大盤。

基準指數持續在1月升評(310億美元)多於降評(100億美元)。

基準指數違約率連續第12個月下降,1月份下降56個基點至0.96%,為2005年9月首次以來的最低水平;作為違約率的領先指標的賤售比率也保持在1.98%的歷史低位。

高收益債在1月份經歷了120億美元的大量流出;這遠遠超過了相對較低的供應量——高收益債券發行量為270億美元,低於2021年1月的510億美元;淨發行額為150億美元。

基金總覽:

1月份,本基金在航空運輸和能源(勘探與生產)方面的選股是相對報酬的最大貢獻者,分別增加了6個基點和5個基點。相反地,基金在天然氣分銷和電信(衛星)方面的選股,以及對後者的增持配置,是對相對報酬的最大拖累者,分別減少4個基點和3個基點。

未來展望:

• 我們對美國高收益公司債的週期維持正面看法;企業信用狀況仍在改善,包括明日之星在內的升評週期應在2022年持續。

• 我們預計違約率和賤售比率仍將遠低於歷史平均水平。

• 新冠疫苗接種取得進展,公共政策從嚴格的活動限制轉向寬鬆,這應使經濟復甦步入正軌,我們已佈局高收益債券的投資組合於潛在受益產業。

• 目前展望面臨的主要風險為疫情爆發和新型變種病毒出現,以及聯準會對通膨的反應。

 
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