【美高收債】2021年11月基金評論

市場總覽:

美國市場在11月面臨一系列不利因素,包括利率波動、市場大量供應的新發行債券以及聯準會可能加速縮減資產購買規模的想法;然後發現了 COVID-19 的新變種病毒Omicron ;最終,部分風險資產被大量拋售,而長天期公債收益率在避險性交易中下降。

美國公債曲線在11月約略持平(儘管程度與10月不同);5年期以下的公債殖利率走高(2年期殖利率上升4個基點至0.52%),而5年期及以上的殖利率走低(10年期殖利率下降12個基點至1.43%)。

美國高收益債券在感恩節前幾天遭到拋售使高收債市出現外流;並在月底 Omicron 爆發時進一步拋售;美銀美林美國高收益債指數下跌1.04%,年初至今漲幅降至3.40%;指數利差擴大51個基點至368個基點,年初至今收斂19個基點。

較低信評債券表現略不佳,但今年迄今表現出色:

• 11月:BB -0.94%、B -1.03%、CCC及以下 -1.44%

• 年初至今:BB 2.65%、B 2.80%、CCC及以下 8.62 %

11月份除一個產業報酬為正以外,其餘產業皆產生負的淨報酬:由交通(-1.89%)以及能源(-1.84%),而銀行業(0.03%)和汽車(-0.10%)相對表現出色;年初至今,能源(10.56%)和交通(5.58%)區塊領先,而電信(-0.27%)以及媒體(-0.08%)區塊落後。

指數11月份淨升評金額為50億美元,是今年第二低的月份;使年初至今淨升評金額達到2,480億美元;仍低於2020年淨降評5,470億美元。

美高收違約率連續第10個月下降,11月下降85個基點至1.67%,為2014年10月以來的最低水平;賤售比率仍然較低(2.11%)。

11月高收益債發行量320億美元,使年初至今金額達到4,440億美元;相比2020年成長10%;其中發行量持續創高,本月淨發行量為130億美元,使年初至今達到1,410億美元(相較去年下降12%)。

11月高收益債市流出50億美元,今年以來淨流出增加至80億美元。

基金總覽:

11月,該基金在食品批發方面的選債相對報酬表現良好,增加4個基點。此外,該基金在媒體產業的選債也表現優異,增加3個基點。

飯店產業和未配置於銀行產業影響基金相對績效,各降低基金績效2個基點及1個基點。

年初至今,媒體及能源勘探與生產產業的選債,及基金對後者的加碼皆帶來正貢獻,各增加基金績效22和21個基點。基金在通訊衛星的選債則減損績效10個基點,而影院娛樂方面的低部位配置則減損績效8個基點。

未來展望:

• 我們已依據2021年有利的信貸條件和緊俏的利差環境對高收益債投資組合進行定位;利差已收斂至低於全球金融危機後的平均水平,但我們認為,信用基本面的改善可以維持一段低於平均水準的利差。

• 由於利潤成長、去槓桿化和還款期限延長,我們預計企業信用狀況將繼續改善。

• 我們認為高收益債違約率、明日之星和墮落天使的前景樂觀。

• 高收益債具吸引力的收益率應會吸引更多該資產的需求。

 
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