【美高收債】2021年10月基金評論

市場總覽:

10月資產類別表現分歧;美國股市和原油雙雙上漲,前者受企業盈利推動,後者受供應問題和市場對未來需求的預期推動;與此同時,美國公債曲線趨於平緩,而企業債券則出現溫和波動。

美國公債曲線在10月份明顯移動;中期曲線殖利率飆升(例如,2年期殖利率上升20個基點至 0.48%,7年期收益率上升12個基點至1.44%),而30年期殖利率下降15個基點至1.93%;事實證明,10年期公債殖利率在一定程度上是曲線趨平的支撐點,因其小幅上漲3個基點至1.55%。

由於部分產業(例如媒體)表現疲軟,評級升級週期放緩以及中期公債出現拋售,美國高收益債在10月份打中止過去連續正報酬的表現;美銀美林美國高收益債指數下跌0.19%,年初至今漲幅降至4.49%;指數利差擴大1個基點至317個基點,年初至今收斂70個基點。

較低信評債券表現略不佳,但今年迄今表現出色:

• 10月:BB -0.16%、B -0.15%、CCC及以下 -0.37%

• 年初至今:BB 3.62%、B 3.87%、CCC及以下 10.21 %

10月份產業表現喜憂參半:由能源(0.47%)和非必需消費品(0.44%)領漲,媒體(-0.90%) 和電信(-0.65%)則落後;年初至今,能源領先(12.63%)而公用事業落後(1.20%)。

指數10月份淨升評金額為80億美元,是今年第二低的月份;使年初至今淨升評金額達到2,420億美元;儘管它仍低於2020年淨升評5,470億美元。

美高收違約率連續第9個月下降,10月下降82個基點至2.52%,為2019年4月以來的最低水平;賤售比率仍然較低(1.77%)。

高收益債發行量10月份放緩至270億美元,是今年最低的月份,使年初至今金額達到4,120億美元;相比2020年成長11%;鑑於投標倍數升高,本月淨發行量為60億美元,使年初至今達到1,180億美元(相較去年下降20%)。

高收益債10月為連續第四個月流入10億美元,截至10月,今年以來淨流出減少至30億美元。

基金總覽:

10 月,該基金在醫療服務方面的選債相對報酬表現良好,增加3個基點。此外,該基金在金融產業的選債也表現優異,增加1個基點。

媒體和食品批發的部位,以及對前者的加碼拖累整體表現,各降低基金績效5個基點及4個基點。

年初至今,能源勘探與生產及媒體產業的選債,及基金對前者的加碼皆帶來正貢獻,各增加基金績效19個基點。基金在通訊衛星和影院娛樂方面的選債,則分別影響10個基點和9個基點。

未來展望:

• 我們已依據2021年有利的信貸條件和緊俏的利差環境對高收益債投資組合進行定位;利差已收斂至低於全球金融危機後的平均水平,但我們認為,信用基本面的改善可以維持一段低於平均水準的利差。

• 由於利潤成長、去槓桿化和還款期限延長,我們預計企業信用狀況將繼續改善。

• 我們認為高收益債違約率、明日之星和墮落天使的前景樂觀。

• 高收益債具吸引力的收益率應會吸引更多該資產的需求。

 
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