【美高收債】2021年9月基金評論

市場總覽:

美國股市和公債市場9月份下跌,市場反應投資人對於通膨升溫、恆大債務危機的潛在蔓延以及華盛頓即將到來的債務上限擔憂,然而商品市場反彈,企業信用利差收斂。

隨著美國公債的下跌,大部分變動發生在本月的最後幾天;殖利率曲線中,2年期殖利率上升8個基點至0.28%,10年期殖利率上升22個基點至1.52%,30年期殖利率上升16個基點至2.08%。

9月,美國高收益債連續第12個月正報酬,儘管幅度不大,信用利差持續收斂;美國高收益債市上漲0.04%,年初至今漲幅4.68%;指數利差收斂6個基點至316個基點,年初至今收斂71個基點。

較低信評債券表現優異,因為BB級債券受到了美國公債拋售的影響:

• 9 月:BB -0.21%、B 0.22%、CCC及以下 0.69%

• 年初至今:BB 3.78%, B 4.02%, CCC及以下 10.62%

9月份產業表現喜憂參半;由能源(0.99%)領漲,消費(-0.46%)則落後;年初至今,能源債領先(12.10%)而公用事業落後(0.86%)。

指數9月份淨升評金額為270億美元,年初至今2,340億美元;仍低於2020年淨降評5,470億美元。

美高收違約率連續第8個月下降,9月下降42個基點至3.34%,為2019年7月以來的最低水平;賤售比率仍然較低(1.98%)。

高收益債發行量9月份440億美元,使年初至今金額達到3,860億美元;相比2020年成長15%;鑑於投標倍數升高,本月淨發行量為150億美元,使年初至今達到1,130億美元(相較去年下降23%)。

高收益債9月持續流入6.32 億美元,截至9月,今年以來淨流出 40億美元。

基金總覽:

9 月,該基金在醫藥方面的選債相對報酬表現良好,增加3個基點。此外,該基金在遊戲產業的選債也表現優異,增加2個基點。

食品批發和軟體服務的部位各降低基金績效 1個基點。

年初至今,媒體行業的選債表現最佳,增加24個基點。此外,基金加碼能源勘探與生產也帶來正貢獻,增加20個基點。基金在通訊衛星和影院娛樂方面的選債,則分別影響10個基點和9個基點。

未來展望:

• 我們已依據2021年有利的信貸條件和緊俏的利差環境對高收益債投資組合進行定位;利差已收斂至低於全球金融危機後的平均水平,但我們認為,信用基本面的改善可以維持一段低於平均水準的利差。

• 由於利潤成長、去槓桿化和還款期限延長,我們預計企業信用狀況將繼續改善。

• 我們認為高收益債違約率、明日之星和墮落天使的前景樂觀。

• 高收益債具吸引力的收益率應會吸引更多該資產的需求。

 
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