【美高收債】2021年8月基金評論

市場總覽:

我們認為美國聯準會在即將到來的縮減購債上,將與市場投資人充分溝通。

8月份美國長天期公債殖利率下降速度減緩,10年期公債殖利率在1.20%-1.35%的區間內盤整;月底上升6個基點至1.30%。

8月份,受益於寬鬆政策推動,美國高收益債券連續11個月正報酬;美銀美林美國高收益債指數上漲0.55%,年初至今漲幅4.64%;利差收斂12個基點至 322 個基點,年初至今收斂65個基點。

債券的評級表現接近,較低信評等級債券的YTD表現優異:

• 8月份:BB 0.57%, B 0.48%, CCC & Lower 0.64%

• 年初至今:BB 4.00%, B 3.80%, CCC & Lower 9.86%

8月份,所有產業均上漲,其中房地產(0.92%)領漲,而公用事業(0.09%)落後;年初至今,能源債領先(11.01%),而公用事業落後( 0.85%)。

8 月份,高收債調升信評金額為 480 億美元,使年初至今調升信評金額達到 2,070 億美元;但仍低於2020年淨降評的 5,470 億美元。

8月份違約率下降131個基點至3.76%,連續七個月下降,創2019年11月以來新低;賤售比率(違約率的領先指標)仍然保持在2.18%的低水準。

高收益債券8月份總發行量維持高檔,達340億美元,使年初至今發行量達到3,420億美元。然而,由於投標水準升高,淨發行量連續第三個月為負,8月份淨發行量為負40億美元。

8月份高收益債資金流入20億美元,使年初至今淨流出減少至50億美元。

基金總覽:

8月份,本基金在能源探勘與生產的選債上帶來最大正貢獻,貢獻了4個基點。此外,天然氣生產的選債表現良好,貢獻3個基點。

相反地,媒體和消費/通訊/租賃業的選債則影響基金表現,各影響2個基點。

年初至今,本基金在媒體的選債帶來最大正貢獻,貢獻23個基點。此外,本基金加碼能源(勘探和生產)也帶來正貢獻,貢獻18個基點。本基金在衛星通訊和劇院娛樂的選債則影響基金表現,分別影響10個基點和9個基點。

未來展望:

• 預計 2021 年經濟將復甦且利差收斂;利差收斂至低於金融海嘯後平均水準,我們認為基本面持續改善可以支撐利差維持在低檔一段時間。

•我們預計企業信用狀況將持續改善,因為公司獲利持續增長、去槓桿化和債務到期日展延等利多支持。

• 我們認為高收益債違約率、明日之星和墮落天使的前景皆為正向發展。

• 較高收益率將使高收益債持續吸引全球投資人對該資產類別的需求。

 
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