【美高收債】2021年7月基金評論

儘管基本面良好且寬鬆貨幣政策持續,然而7月份投資級債利差擴大,小型股遭到拋售,而原油和高收益債則波動較小。

市場總覽:

儘管基本面良好且寬鬆貨幣政策持續,然而7月份投資級債利差擴大,小型股遭到拋售,而原油和高收益債則波動較小。

美國短天期公債殖利率下降較少(2年期下降6個基點至0.19%),而長天期殖利率下降幅度較大(10年期下降21個基點至1.24%),為自2020年3月以來最大跌幅。

受惠於調升信評金額多於調降信評,違約率下降,基本面持續改善,截至7月份,美國高收益債連續10個月上漲。

美銀美林美國高收益債指數7月上漲0.35%,年初至今上漲4.07%;然而,利差擴大28個基點至334個基點。

低信評債券在 7 月份表現落後,但今年起仍保持領先:

• 7月份:BB 0.72%, B -0.01%, CCC & Lower -0.32%

• 年初至今:BB 3.42%, B 3.30%, CCC & Lower 9.16%

多數產業在7月表現攀升,其中消費性商品 (0.96%) 領漲,而休閒產業 (-0.65%) 落後;年初至今所有產業均表現良好,能源債領先 (10.02%),公用事業則落後 (0.75%)。

7月份,高收債調升信評金額為290億美元,降評金額僅140億美元。

7月份違約率下降112個基點至 5.07% ,連續六個月下降;賤售比率(違約率的領先指標)上升 43個基點至 2.16%,仍然保持在較低水準。

高收益債券7月份總發行量維持高檔,達290億美元,使年初至今發行量達到3,070億美元。7月份淨發行量為110億美元,年初至今淨發行量達1,030億美元 。

7月份高收益債資金流入6.56億美元,使年初至今淨流出減少至70億美元。

基金總覽:

7月份,本基金在食品批發與金融零售服務的選債帶來最大正貢獻,分別貢獻了1個基點。該基金在衛星通訊以及能源探勘的選債,影響基金表現,分別影響5個與3個基點。

年初至今,本基金在媒體產業的選債帶來最大正貢獻,貢獻了25個基點。此外,本基金加碼能源(勘探和生產)也帶來正貢獻,貢獻13個基點。本基金衛星通訊和戲院娛樂的選債則影響基金表現,分別影響11個基點和9個基點。

未來展望:

• 預計 2021 年經濟將復甦且利差收斂;利差收斂至低於金融海嘯後平均水準,我們認為基本面持續改善可以支撐利差維持在低檔一段時間。

• 我們預計企業信用狀況將持續改善,因為公司獲利持續增長、去槓桿化和債務到期日展延等利多支持。

• 我們認為高收益債違約率、明日之星和墮落天使的前景皆為正向發展。

• 較高收益率將使高收益債持續吸引全球投資人對該資產類別的需求。

 
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