【美高收債】2021年6月基金評論

市場總覽:

由於美國基本面改善和聯準會的政策支持,推動美國市場6月份上漲。

市場認為FOMC會議偏向鷹派之後,美國公債殖利率曲線在6月趨於平緩;短天期殖利率上升(2年期上升11個基點至0.25%),而長天期殖利率連下降(10年期下降13個基點至1.48%)。

在基本面改善,信評狀況持續改善且違約率下降之下,截至6月份,美國高收益債連續9個月上漲。

美銀美林美國高收益債指數6月上漲1.36%,為去年12月以來最大單月漲幅,年初至今上漲3.70%;利差收斂29個基點至306個基點,為金融海嘯以來最低水準。

6月份所有各評級皆上漲,同時,由於經濟持續復甦,較低信評債券表現較佳

市場認為FOMC會議偏向鷹派之後,美國公債殖利率曲線在6月趨於平緩;短天期殖利率上升(2年期上升11個基點至0.25%),而長天期殖利率連下降(10年期下降13個基點至1.48%)。

在基本面改善,信評狀況持續改善且違約率下降之下,截至6月份,美國高收益債連續9個月上漲。

美銀美林美國高收益債指數6月上漲1.36%,為去年12月以來最大單月漲幅,年初至今上漲3.70%;利差收斂29個基點至306個基點,為金融海嘯以來最低水準。

6月份所有各評級皆上漲,同時,由於經濟持續復甦,較低信評債券表現較佳

• 6月份:BB 1.51%, B 0.95%, CCC & Lower 1.91%

• 年初至今:BB 2.68%, B 3.32%, CCC & Lower 9.51%

所有產業均表現良好,其中,能源債 (2.66%) 領漲,公用事業 (0.65%) 落後; 6 月份延續年初至今的表現,能源債領漲 (10.21%),公用事業是唯一下跌的產業 (-0.09%)。

6月份,高收債調升信評金額為470億元美元,降評金額僅50億元美元。

6月份違約率下降50個基點至 6.19% ,連續五個月下降;賤售比率(違約率的領先指標)下降 62 個基點至 1.73%,仍然保持在較低水準。

高收益債券6月份總發行量高達360億美元,使年初至今發行量達到2,770億美元,年增31%。6月份淨發行量為-20億美元,年初至今淨發行量仍高達900億美元 。

6月份高收益債資金持續流出7.99億美元,使年初至今淨流出80億美元。

基金總覽:

6 月份,本基金在媒體的選債帶來最大正貢獻,貢獻了5個基點。該基金在遊戲和消費/通訊服務/租賃金融的選債,影響基金表現,分別影響1個基點。

未來展望:

• 預計 2021 年經濟將復甦且利差收斂;利差收斂至低於金融海嘯後平均水準,我們認為基本面持續改善可以支撐利差維持在低檔一段時間。

• 我們預計企業信用狀況將持續改善,因為公司獲利持續增長、去槓桿化和債務到期日展延等利多支持。

• 我們認為高收益債違約率、明日之星和墮落天使的前景皆為正向發展。

• 較高收益率將使高收益債持續吸引全球投資人對該資產類別的需求。

 
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