【美高收債】2021年2月基金評論

市場總覽:

2月份,美國風險性資產因刺激法案及企業財報優於預期而走高,但在本月最後一週波動上升,由於美國公債殖利率快速上升,影響了股票和債券的報酬。

美國中長天期公債殖利率2月份持續攀升;10年期公債殖利率上升33個基點至1.44%,而30年期公債殖利率上升30個基點至2.17%。

2月份,不同於投資級債的表現,美國高收益債上漲,因刺激法案及企業財報優於預期等利多消息抵銷公債殖利率變動對高收益債的影響。

美國高收益債指數2月份上漲0.35%;利差收斂26個基點至359個基點。

月份,較低評級高收益債券表現持續反彈;反觀較高評級高收益債券表現平淡。

○ 2月份:BB 0.02%;B 0.43%;CCC及以下 1.60%

○ 年初至今:BB 0.07%;B 0.64%;CCC及以下 4.00%

高收益債券2月份發行量低於前一個月,但仍維持高檔,總發行量達360億美元。然而,2月份資金淨流出20美元,年初至今資金淨流出達40億美元。

基金總覽:

2月份,本基金在能源(探勘和生產)及零售的選債帶來最大正貢獻,分別貢獻了7個基點及4個基點。 相對地,本基金在油田設備與服務的選債則影響表現,拖累了6個基點。

年初至今,本基金在能源(探勘和生產)及媒體的選債帶來最大正貢獻,分別貢獻了11個基點及7個基點。相對地,本基金在油田設備與服務及娛樂影視拖累表現,分別影響8個基點與7個基點。

未來展望:

我們已調整高收益債投組以應對2021年的利差收斂;利差已收斂至低於金融海嘯後平均水準,但我們認為基本面持續改善可以支撐利差維持在低檔一段時間。

我們預計美國經濟將持續復甦。由於企業獲利持續增長、去槓桿化和債務到期日展延,企業基本面將持續改善。

我們認為高收益債違約率、墮落天使的前景皆呈現正向發展。

在低利率和利差收斂的環境下,高收益債持續吸引全球投資人對該資產類別的需求。

 
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