摘要
印度股市2024年9月創高後，迄今隨著估值偏高、企業獲利放緩及資金外流等等因素而明顯回檔修正。但觀察中長期經濟成長趨勢不變，不妨等待利空消化、逢低布局投資，印度仍將大有可為。瀚亞印度基金投資顧問-ICICI保誠資產管理日前發表印度2025年市場展望指出，印度被認為是當前成長最快的經濟體，形容就像「大象現在正在跳舞」，但問題是，當票價不便宜時，還能夠吸引投資人來看這場表演嗎？
印度潛力依然強勁
印度是全球成長最快的經濟體之一，國際貨幣基金組織預測印度 2026 財年和 2027 財年經濟成長率將達到 6.5%，超過其他大型經濟體。
ICICI保誠資產管理表示，印度雖然短期評價不便宜，但經濟基本面無虞，2025年經濟可望維持強勁成長趨勢，建議投資人關注印度市場的長期投資機會，特別是在基礎設施建設、科技創新、內需升級等相關領域標的。
此外，印度中小型股較昂貴，成為近期市場修正重點，但大型股相對便宜，整體印股短期超跌，待底部位置確認後，將逐步吸引資金回流。
消費升級與成長 印度五大產業前景看好
此外，消費升級題材也將長期支持印度市場。根據市場研究，印度消費市場正處於升級階段，特別是耐用品（如汽車、空調、冰箱等）的滲透率仍遠低於中國和美國，顯示未來巨大的成長潛力，並看好未來汽車、家電、智慧型手機等領域將受益於這一趨勢，亦可望為投資人帶來可觀的報酬機會。
ICICI保誠資產管理認為，印度具備強勁的長期成長潛力，特別是在消費與基礎設施領域表現亮眼，其中汽車、水泥、電信、金融與消費必需品等五大產業前景樂觀。
投資人可根據市場趨勢靈活配置資產，制定更明智的投資策略，以把握印度市場的發展機會。惟面對短期市場震盪，瀚亞投信建議，積極型投資人低接印度股票基金，穩健型投資人或可採取股債均衡配置，等待印度象再度起舞。
更多文章
Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.
Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).
United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.
European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.
United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.
Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.
The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.
Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.
Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.
Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).