摘要

 

10月9日印度儲備銀行(RBI)宣布維持利率不變,值得注意的是,RBI貨幣政策委員會本次將政策立場調整為「中性」,被市場認為是為降息做預備;而10月底將迎來印度重要節慶:排燈節,龐大消費商機可期。挾著經濟成長、降息行情與消費旺盛等題材,推薦投資人透過瀚亞印度基金長期掌握印度股市投資潛力。

8月到9月這段期間,印度陸續出現高頻指標出現放緩趨勢,如乘用車銷量、電力需求、商品及服務稅(GST)徵收和製造業採購經理指數(PMI)、及信貸增長等,引發市場對印度增長勢頭是否放緩的擔憂,而Sensex指數也自85,836歷史高點暫時回落。

通膨放緩 利率政策轉調

瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟認為,印度製造業採購經理人PMI指數自先前歷史高點溫和回落,Sensex指數自然也反映出企業銷售與獲利走勢放緩。

但值得關注的是,印度通膨率已連續兩個月低於RBI 4%的目標,8月份為3.65%,通膨放緩、經濟數據趨緩及企業獲利成長減速等原因,也讓印度央行開始改變利率政策態度。

10月RBI利率會議首次定調為中性,除了持續回收多餘流動性外,更強調要兼顧成長。根據預估,FY2025 印度GDP成長率仍可達到7.2%;CPI年增率則是約4.5%,預估明年第一季整體通膨可下滑至4%,符合央行長期穩定標準。正因如此,市場認為印度開始出現降息的討論,最快可能發生在2024年底至明年第一季。

把握短期修正時機加碼

印度股市自9月底以來明顯修正,處於高檔震盪。以MSCI印度指數為例,本益比相較於整體新興市場有所拉回,從經濟、企業獲利等面向來看,印度中期投資仍相當看好,短期則有評價修正、降息資金及消費旺季行情可期,提供良好的進場時機。

印度整體宏觀環境保持韌性,通膨趨於穩定,政府注重財政整頓,盧比匯率穩定等多重利多,看好印度是亞太區長期增長前景最佳的國家。建議選擇瀚亞印度基金布局,短期逢修正加碼,長期納入資產配置。

更多文章

了解更多
巴西股市修正後具投資機會   伺機布局靜待反彈

in insights

股票

巴西股市修正後具投資機會 伺機布局靜待反彈

2024/10

巴西較早啟動降息,但現在面臨財政赤字、匯率韌性較低等情況,加上通膨預期升溫、央行轉向鷹派,諸多利空因素,導致今年巴...

【優質債券】降息主旋律 第四季配置納入優質債

in insights

【優質債券】降息主旋律 第四季配置納入優質債

2024/10

2024年9月聯準會開啟降息循環,對於固定收益市場未來走勢影響關鍵;根據歷史經驗,降息政策將明顯有利於美國投資級公...

【印度溫度計】降息希望燃起  印股盤整後有望反攻向上

in insights

股票

【印度溫度計】降息希望燃起 印股盤整後有望反攻向上

2024/10

聯準會降息2碼,提振市場情緒,外資9月份明顯回補印度股市,激勵走勢,連四個月呈現上漲。不過,10月份受季節性因素影...

【印度溫度計】全球股市震盪劇烈  印度逆勢續創新高

in insights

股票

【印度溫度計】全球股市震盪劇烈 印度逆勢續創新高

2024/09

印度股市連三月維持多頭格局,並屢創新高,突破 85,000 點。瀚亞投信表示,聯準會啟動降息周期,且美國經濟數據正...

市場快訊》美國首輪降息來了 瀚亞最新觀點

in insights

股票

市場快訊》美國首輪降息來了 瀚亞最新觀點

2024/09

首輪降息來了,年底前有望再降 2 碼。利率決策:宣布降息 2 碼,基準利率調降 2 碼來到 4.75-5.0%,是...

This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.


The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).