摘要

 

巴西較早啟動降息,但現在面臨財政赤字、匯率韌性較低等情況,加上通膨預期升溫、央行轉向鷹派,諸多利空因素,導致今年巴西股市表現疲弱,落後新興市場;惟評價面更具投資機會,建議可伺機布局。


重啟升息 研判對股市影響不大

根據歷史經驗,過去幾次的升息周期,股市勝率偏低,但當前因巴西股市評價面處於歷史區下緣,加上先前市場已醞釀巴西將重啟升息動作,因此研判此次小幅升息循環,不會對股市帶來太大的修正,但走勢將呈現震盪格局。

瀚亞巴西基金經理人王亨表示,巴西股市過去兩年漲勢凌厲,也使基期墊高,加上外資已普遍超配巴西股市,在里爾走勢疲弱,以及權值板塊的原物料、能源表現溫吞之際,股市表現顯得疲弱。

根據美銀美林最新的經理人調查顯示,雖然巴西股市短線上檔空間有限,但下檔也具備評價面保護。

表:瀚亞巴西基金績效表現
eastspring-brazil-thermometer-202410_1.png

資料來源與日期:Lipper,2024/9/30。同類型分類採用理柏環球分類-巴西股票基金。

基本面亮眼 外資超配巴西股

雖然短線上缺乏催化劑,但巴西基本面不差,企業獲利穩步向上,經濟數據也表現穩健,當前股市以未來12個月預期的EPS位在7.7倍,處於歷史區間下緣,低於多數新興市場國家,仍具投資機會。

根據統計,目前外資已普遍超配巴西股市,幅度是新興市場之最,擁擠程度偏高,但內資流入金額仍偏少。外資報告預估,得等到利率回落至更低、約9%的水位,才有機會吸引內資大幅增持股票。

整體來看,巴西股市今年來已修正到一定程度,儘管要再次啟動升息,但股市的下檔仍具支撐;巴西基本面仍相當不錯,建議仍可伺機布局巴西基金,一旦最壞情況過去,反彈潛力值得期待。

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