摘要

 

美股走高,激勵台股漲勢,但台股近期呈現「群龍無首」的現象,類股輪動快速,整體資金呈現分散式布局,但 520 行情啟動,加上高殖利率股持續吸引資金流入,台股大盤偏多格局未變。

瀚亞投信台股投資總監劉博玄表示,台股短線擁四大利多,整體大盤獲得支撐,上漲動能也值得期待。

一、 經濟溫和成長,聯準會降息希望重啟:經濟數據有降溫跡象,但仍穩健,迎「類金髮女孩經濟」氛圍;只要經濟數據未出現明顯變差,聯準會的防禦性降息就能發揮正面效果,經濟展望偏向樂觀,將使股市獲得支撐。

二、 企業財報亮眼:美國與台灣企業財報大多優於市場預期,反映基本面仍屬亮眼,同時,靜待下半年 AI PC 問世,題材將逐漸發酵,帶動整體拉貨動能後,有望進一步激勵股市。

三、 520 行情:政府心態偏多,政策支持類股有望吸引買盤。

四、 高股息資金效應:高殖利率個股有望持續吸引資金流入。

台灣電子類股 逢低拉回伺機布局

AI PC 下半年問世,相關類股上漲動能強:產業將進入淡季,電子股短線缺乏上漲動能,惟 AI PC 最晚第四季可能就會問世,預估下半年相關題材就會開始發酵。據研調機構預估,AI PC 市場將在 2025 年與 2026 年大幅成長,到 2027 年預計出貨量會佔 PC 總出貨量的 60% 以上,相關電腦周邊設備都有望受惠,如:品牌廠、鍵盤、DDR5、鏡頭模組、聲學元件等,建議投資人可伺機布局。

網通商機潛力無窮:網通產業隨 AI 算力持續增加,高速上網需求殷切,將推動主流規格 WiFi 7 升級,在無線連網方式 FWA 的部分也因佈建與維護成本低,開始在新興市場大量設置,未來台廠可望在用戶端設備出貨量大幅增加下受惠。

傳產類股 看好重電、金融

重電:先前已漲多,近期獲利賣壓較重,但受惠於美國電網汰舊換新的量相當龐大,台灣重電設備廠可望持續受惠,整體基本面仍相當亮眼,長線仍具成長利基,建議可在籌碼沉澱後進場。

金融:受惠於今年度配息亮眼以及前四月累計獲利佳,近期漲勢動能強,部分個股殖利率仍有 4% 以上,將吸引高股息資金流入,加上金融業普遍釋出的展望仍相對樂觀,將使資金買盤簇擁,推升股價。

航運:近期受惠於財報優於預期加上低基期因素,航運類股短線上受資金青睞,近期連日走高,惟短線已急漲,建議可靜待拉回時,再進場布局。

表:瀚亞投信對台股後市展望看法
taiwan_stock_240516

資料來源與日期:瀚亞投信,2024/05。

表:瀚亞台股系列基金投資特色
240423_taiwan_stock_1

資料來源:瀚亞投信。

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