摘要
2025金融市場面臨嶄新挑戰，美國川普2.0將帶來市場不確定性及通膨壓力，而中國經濟能否重振亦受到高度關注。瀚亞投信展望2025年全球經濟將溫和成長，美國聯準會依舊在降息軌道上，有利於美股續揚，而強勢美元環境下，新興市場機會也呼之欲出。
面對2025年第一季全球金融市場變局，瀚亞投信投資長林如惠表示，美國勞動市場將影響消費和經濟成長，而美國總統川普上任後的政策，可能推升美國短期經濟及強勢美元格局；反觀中國，可能因貿易戰而影響成長，後續財政刺激政策有待觀察。
正因如此，全球投資市場仍將以美國為焦點，尤其川普的完全執政，對於美國物價具潛在影響，甚至可能影響聯準會降息步調，致使債券價格來到具吸引力位置，將有利於高品質債券資產的表現。至於股市布局策略，由於新政策、通膨與利率走向等不確定性，一方面可能推高市場波動度，同時提供極佳的進場時機，精選個股將是2025年致勝關鍵。
林如惠看好降息後資金持續轉進風險性資產，尤其是未來12個月獲利預估上修的科技業；至於固定收益資產，因債券波動度也隨著降息而下降，建議選擇優質債券。
債市： 美元債優先 高品質債續抱
瀚亞投信固定收益部主管周曉蘭表示，全球資金環境中性偏寬鬆、經濟環境偏軟著陸的情境下，債券實質利率上升，使得固定收益資產具備一定程度吸引力，加上美國維持降息趨勢，非美貨幣與美元利差減少，避險成本降低，有望提升海外投資者對於美國債券資產的需求。
以高盛、美銀美林等大型機構預測，在基本情境下，信用債收益率相對高，預估2025年有機會連續第三年正報酬。周曉蘭相對看好投資等級債及非投資等級債券。以投資級債來看，考量美國有成長風險，加上情境的市場技術面、相對較高的美債收益率、供應放緩，預期利差有收斂機會。
非投資等級債方面，基本面不差，且下檔風險可控，適合作為中長期累積收益為目標；輔以投資人對總收益的需求強勁，加上企業發債嚴守資本紀律，對於到期債務再融資，而不是積極發行，提供強勁的技術面支撐。
至於新興市場債券，則須留意美國/美元等因素影響，新興美元債會是較佳標的，當地債則波動較大，需等待時間表現及觀望。
股市：美國布局為首
以已開發市場來看，高度看好美國股市，日本股市次之。機構投資人預估，S&P 500指數在2025年的每股盈餘成長率可達11%，2026年亦上看7%的年增率持續增長；尤其看好以AI趨勢所帶動的半導體增長將會延續，從平台層到應用層的相關公司，2025年的股價表現可期，因此建議優先布局美國為主的科技族群。隨著2025年日本經濟增溫、GDP重新加速，加上薪資成長率上揚，日股表現也可望延續過去兩年。
至於新興市場股市則優選印度、台灣，其中印度股市與中國翹翹板資金效應已接近尾聲，搭配估值修正、企業獲利回升，預料將吸引資金回流；且印度受到全球不確定性影響較低，可做為進可攻退可守的標的市場。
台股則是受惠於AI科技趨勢，建議可持續聚焦半導體先進製程、AI Server、AI Edging應用供應鏈及網通等產業，以及低基期景氣循環產業，例如紡織、航運、自行車、金融(金控)等，業績有機會因中國救市而提前進入旺季。整體股市中性偏正面，預期全球降息趨勢將刺激終端需求回升，再者，AI產業成長可期，建議投資人採定期定額、拉回買進方式進場佈局。
2025年第一季精選基金清單
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