摘要

 

全球降息醞釀中,各類風險性資產蓄勢待發,第二季投資將更為關鍵。瀚亞投信展望股票、債券表現生機蓬勃,在通膨巨獸環境下,持有現金、不投資,恐怕才是最大風險。

債市:三大債券有出息 各有亮點

美國聯準會主席鮑威爾先前給予較明確利率政策指引,有望於 2024 年底前降息,而市場樂觀預期,最快於第二季末、第三季初將迎來首次降息。隨著不少國家利率見頂,降息啟動也將帶動債券價格回升,以當前相對高的債息水準,將極具吸引力。

現正處於「停止升息、醞釀降息」的時間點,是債券布局的好時機,瀚亞投信第二季持續看好投資等級債、非投資等級債、新興市場美元債,三大債券資產將各具優勢,占據不同戰略位置。

其中,隨著美國經濟軟著陸,基本面有撐,信評較佳且殖利率高於 5% 的投資等級債,自然成為不少長期投資資金的青睞。

而風險性債券,也隨著降息而迎來布局機會,以非投資等級債為例,目前收益率位於過去十年高檔,由於信用債市利率風險變小,未來 12 個月違約率將降至 3% 以下,預期總報酬相對可觀。而通膨下降、經濟指標上升,新興市場央行更有底氣進行降息,而根據歷史經驗,當聯準會升息暫停至下一次降息期間,新興債將出現反彈,第二季尤其看好存續期較短的新興美元公司債。

圖1、債市投資展望摘要
2024Q2outlook-1

資料來源:瀚亞投信整理, 2024/3

股市:科技股強勢 高成長支撐股價

龍年股市展現多頭氣勢,包括美股、歐股、日股、台股及印度等市場,不約而同都在第一季繳出亮眼漲幅。瀚亞投信認為,這些市場在經濟復甦、降息預期及企業獲利成長、選舉利多等不同題材帶動下,第二季將持續看好美、日、印、台股市;而科技股將維持強勢,建議投資人逢低加碼、長線定期定額布局,搭上科技應用的多頭列車。

在科技七巨頭帶動下,美股首季漲勢連連,市場對美國經濟增長不再悲觀,美股進入盈餘上升週期,2024 / 2025 盈餘成長分別為 8%、6%,預料本益比仍有上升空間,而美國科技股將是投資人中長期布局重點。

日本股市第一季創新高,不少國際機構預期,指數還有上漲空間,除了薪資成長推動日本擺脫通縮,也帶動企業盈餘上修,進而推升股價,日股改革政策一波波,也將成為中長期上漲的驅動力。

新興股市則優選台股及印度,其中印度五月迎來總理大選,加上印度央行 RBI 預計今明兩年 GDP 成長會高達 7% 以上,CPI 降溫更加深下半年降息預期,儘管股市已經創新高,但利多行情將延續。台股方面,在基本面、資金豐沛的多頭格局下,指數易漲難跌,看好包括 AI PC 供應鏈、AI 散熱、網通等科技族群,以及重電與紡織為主的傳產股機會。

圖2、股市投資展望摘要
2024Q2outlook-2

資料來源:瀚亞投信整理, 2024/3

不投資才是最大風險 Q2標的推薦

第二季投資組合,股票和債券皆不可少,特別是科技股為主的美股,還有具備上漲潛力的歐股、日股、印度及台股,個別具備上漲題材,可透過瀚亞境內、境外系列基金投資,跟上資本利得上漲行情;另有完整的境外債券系列基金、平衡組合型產品供多元選擇。

圖3、2024年第二季精選基金清單
2024Q2outlook-3

資料來源:瀚亞投信

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