摘要

 

隨著通膨降溫,2024 年市場共識「降息」有譜。根據美國聯準會點陣圖,暗示 2024 年將有 3 碼降息幅度,全球市場可望進入利率新時代,股債資產該如何順勢掌握機會?

瀚亞投信投資長林如惠認為,2024 市場關注三大焦點:通膨、成長、利率。其中,美國經濟應該可以避免陷入衰退,且核心通膨逐步降至目標水準,各國央行可能機動採取「預防性降息」,因此預料利率政策可望成為投資行情的神隊友,第一季可望迎來「股債雙盈」的格局,投資人應該把握時機布局。

債市:收益總回報年

觀察 2024 年貨幣緊縮進入尾聲,全球債市預料也將出現四大變化,包括 一、貨幣政策變動;二、有較高的總回報;三、留意高利率影響;四、新興市場現轉機。投資人可對此因應,並且選擇相應有利基的債券資產。

債券「收益總回報」可期,優先看好債信品質佳的投資等級債,成熟市場又優於新興市場,以總回報角度來看,目前美國投資級企業債收益率近 6% 具吸引力,預計 2024 年總回報率可追上過去年度高檔區間。非投資等級債同樣偏多看好,即使違約率可能上升,但高品質信用利差可以提供足夠的緩衝,因此總報酬率值得期待。

2024Q1outlook-1資料來源 : 瀚亞投信,2023/12


股市:降息、選舉、企業獲利三大利多

全球股市在利率正常化的復甦下,適合投資人更積極追求報酬。2024 年成熟市場和新興市場皆不乏題材,前者包括美國、歐洲及日本都是中立偏多,新興市場則以台灣、印度等具備大選行情題材最引人注目,而已進入降息循環的巴西股市,也不容小覷。

2024Q1outlook-2資料來源 : 瀚亞投信,2023/12


2024第一季 股債處處是機會

經歷 2023 年上漲,核心資產實質利率接近 2005 年至 2007 年的平均值,多數股市並未嚴重偏貴,未來 12 個月預估本益比,例如日本、歐洲、亞太除日本等市場,建議透過主動型選股,避開高利率對於企業的借貸成本與利潤率的影響,看好美股持續擔任穩定的力量。

債券實質收益率也回收,頗具吸引力,2024 年明日之星與墮落天使債券的差距將擴大,透過經理團隊選債,尋找債信品質改善、利差收斂空間可期的優質債券資產。

2024年第一季精選基金清單

2024Q1outlook-3資料來源 : 瀚亞投信

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