摘要

 

2024年9月聯準會開啟降息循環,對於固定收益市場未來走勢影響關鍵;根據歷史經驗,降息將明顯有利於美國投資級公司債走勢。瀚亞投資-優質公司債基金(本基金配息來源可能為本金)團隊如何看待投資級債券降息行情表現及第四季相關風險因子?

根據美國聯準會點陣圖利率走向指引,本波降息循環總計可高達10碼,而9月才開始首次降息,年底還有2~3碼降息空間。

隨著時序進入第四季,美股評價仍偏高,即將面臨美國總統大選,加上經濟衰退的等不確定因素,瀚亞投資建議投資人留意潛在波動因子,投資組合納入投資級債券,本身就擁有高品質、信用評等高的優勢,可適度分散資產風險,同時把握其殖利率高於長期平均的投資時機。

投資級債三大買進理由

投資級債券第四季起將進入佳境,投資理由包括:

1. 降息下帶來多頭格局
隨著通膨走低,失業率微幅攀升,預期將持續降息,有利於投資級債行情。
2. 震盪下防禦需求攀升
經濟轉為疲弱的雜音、美國第四季總統大選到來、股市評價偏貴等不安情勢,將使市場持續震盪,資金仍有轉進防禦資產的需求。
3. 評價面補漲行情可期
美國投資級債長期趨勢向上,但以百元報價來看,仍處於大幅折價水準,隨著降息行情到來,補漲行情可期。


20241016_corporate_bond_1_1.png


歷史格局 眺望投資級債

根據過去五次降息行情經驗,觀察降息後半年,美國投資級公司債均呈現上漲,每次上漲幅度為1995年的6.1%,同一年1998年上漲0.9%;2001年上漲5.5%、2007年金融海嘯時上漲2%;以及最近一次的2019年上漲6.0%。進一步比較股債三大主要資產,過去五次降息周期啟動後,投資級債各期間表現皆數一數二。


20241016_corporate_bond_2_2.png


推薦基金:瀚亞投資-優質公司債基金(本基金配息來源可能為本金)

本基金投資於美國為主的投資級公司債券,其基金持有前十大發行人,皆為歐美知名企業或政府相關債券,以高品質為選債目標;另具備高靈活度,團隊因應不同市場狀況,彈性調整債種配置,包括公司債、美國政府債、外國政府債等等,逆勢操作基金曝險及產業配置。

亦提供多元商品給投資人選擇,包括美元、澳幣、紐幣、南非幣等豐富幣別;在收益分配選擇上,亦有累積、穩定月配、月配可選。


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