摘要
今年以來 AI 需求熱絡，刺激 ASIC、IP 族群股價飆漲，不過進入 8 月份後，台廠 AI 股回檔猛烈，美國科技股表現也欠佳，市場開始對 AI 族群有不少雜音。瀚亞投信認為，AI 是科技股的長線主軸，而非泡沫，短線良性修正後估值將回到合理位階，不少美國科技股已出現長線買點，資金盤蓄勢待發承接。
AI 族群暫時水腫 而非泡沫
今年來 AI 旋風吹漲相關族群的股價，瀚亞美國高科技基金經理人林元平表示，近期 AI 族群漲多回檔，第二季財報陸續公布後，部分個股因未來展望不如預期而呈現下挫，並帶動相關類股一起修正，加上本益比偏高，造成短線資金急於抽離。
目前回檔，可比喻為「逐步消化水腫」，均屬良性循環，若將眼光放遠至產業的未來成長性，投資人不必擔心泡沫化。林元平認為，目前AI股正處於盈餘轉折向上的拐點，若 2024 年美國總體經濟向上，搭配 AI 產品帶動，獲利年增率有機會向上，屆時 AI 相關公司本益比也不再高不可攀，投資人應把握回檔時機進場。
美股財報逐季好轉
根據高盛集團統計，截至 8/11，S&P 500 第二季財報已有超過九成的企業財報公布，非必需消費品族群優於預期的比例達 89%，資訊科技與健康醫療產業比例為 88% 緊追在後，整體企業高於預期的比例高達 74%，相較去年同期來看，已有顯著性的好轉。
第二季美股財報企業獲利雖然下滑，但仍優於市場過度悲觀預期；市場預估， S&P 500 企業第二季獲利年增率為 -4%，優於先前預估的 -9%，而今年及明年的獲利年增率則分別為 1% 與 5%。
展望美股，大儘管當前盤勢仍處修正期，但持續有買盤進駐，意味著市場仍有投資人等著買；AI 族群長線仍樂觀看好，議投資人可在修正期間可採取定期定額或逢低加碼方式介入美國科技型基金，增加 AI （軟體、半導體）的族群部位。
美股拐點來了 優選瀚亞美國高科技
瀚亞美國高科技基金為國內少數投信發行、以美國科技股為主的境內基金，適合國人直接持有新台幣投資。截至 2023/7/31，短中長期績效領先同類型平均，更排名四分位居冠。
以布局的產業範疇來看，以人工智慧、元宇宙為出發的領域，包括大數據 （高速運算、儲存及傳輸）、數位轉型、網路及電商、行動支付及區塊鏈；另布局電動車、汽車電子與自駕題材。基金投資組合中，高度與半導體產品與設備相關，是國內海外基金中相對與美國科技股票、AI 領域連結最緊密的基金。
表：瀚亞美國高科技基金績效（％）
資料來源：Lipper，分類為投信投顧公會-跨國股票-美國型，統計至 2023/7/31，報酬率 ％。*為基金主級別及四分位排名
更多文章
Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.
Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.
Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).
United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.
European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.
United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 10 Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6AF.
Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.
The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.
The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.
Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.
Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.
Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America or with the Prudential Assurance Company, a subsidiary of M&G plc (a company incorporated in the United Kingdom).