摘要
過去五年1，越南胡志明證交所指數 (VNINDEX) 的年化報酬率為 8.5%（以美元計價），跑贏 MSCI 前沿新興市場指數及 MSCI 新興市場指數。更重要的是，相對於 MSCI 新興市場指數，越南股市與已開發市場的相關性較低，有潛力為投資人提高投資組合的多元性，但其波動度也隨之較高。見圖1。
令人振奮的機會
越南強勁的經濟成長預計將有助於鞏固越南股市的未來發展。國際貨幣基金組織預測，越南的經濟成長將由 2023 年的 5% 擴大至 2024 年的 5.8% 及 2025 年的 6.5% 2 。
供應鏈轉移
全球供應鏈轉移促進越南成長，該國通常被稱為「中國加一」策略性目的地。越南受惠於其具有成本效益的製造能力及勞動力。地理位置鄰近中國也有助簡化物流以及供應商和製造商之間的協調，並提高兩者之間的效率。同時，越南積極發展再生能源，以提升能源安全及永續性，並持續出口能源。
2023 年，越南吸引外國直接投資（FDI）366 億美元，其中 230 億美元已經撥付，創近五年來越南 FDI 最高水準。加工製造業的外國直接投資資本占總額 64%。2024 年，新註冊的外國直接投資金額達 62 億美元，按年增加 13.4%。圖2。隨著政府繼續透過稅務優惠、免稅和簡化行政程序等優惠政策促進外國直接投資，這些投資將提升就業、基礎設施發展和整體經濟成長。
持續增長的外國直接投資流入預計將刺激產業園區需求，進而支撐租金市場。我們透過連結產業園區與住宅、公用事業及社會基礎建設，以創立完整產業園區生態系統，進而提升更多可租賃面積，足以滿足全球製造商及開發商。
數位轉型
我們也看到科技公司的投資機會，這些公司能運用越南政府的政策《數位轉型議程》，加以推動國內數位轉型所帶來的商機。在經歷了多年的投資不足後，隨著各行業的數位化程度不斷提高，預計將會擴大數位基礎建設的支出。2022 年，越南數位經濟的商品總值為 230 億美元，預計 2025 年將達到 490 億美元，主要由電子商務貿易行業推動。
中產階級收入持續增加
越南強勁的經濟成長也帶動中產階級人口迅速擴大。投資於越南股市提供了零售、房地產及消費品等行業的潛力，這些行業將受惠於可支配收入的增加。越南的銀行持續關注尚未充分發展的零售銀行業務，以實現收入多元化並提高利率。數位化有助於降低營運成本並支持獲利成長。相比其他東協國家的銀行，越南銀行的股東權益報酬率（ROE）更高。
爭取新興市場的地位
越南致力鞏固其資本市場，以促進經濟成長及提高穩定性。過去十年，越南股市迅速成長（圖4）。越南股市目前的平均市值是其國內生產毛額（GDP）的 60%，政府的目標是到 2025 年及 2030 年將市值對 GDP 的比例分別提高至 100% 及 120%。政府打擊腐敗的行動也顯示其維持一個更加透明及對投資人友善的環境。
越南一直致力在 2025 年 7 月前獲得新興市場地位，這有可能引起投資人更大的關注及吸引更多資金流入。然而，解決與結算程序和外資所有權上限相關的挑戰仍然至關重要。在這方面，越南正在試行一個交易系統，以解決下單前需要有可用資金的問題，並縮短結算週期，不過該系統尚未正式推出。
潛力龐大
投資人能透過越南股市參與一個充滿活力且具發展性的經濟體。過去五年，該市場的股本報酬率平均達 14.6%，超過其他東協國家，並預計在 2025 年將穩定地維持在14% 3。越南為長線投資人帶來機會，幫助他們把握其製造業優勢、數位轉型的力量，以及持續壯大的中產階級帶來的報酬。
更多文章
1. 截至 2024 年 5 月 10 日。彭博。
2. 國際貨幣基金組織。2024 年 4 月。
3. 彭博。截至 2024 年 5 月 16 日。
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