亞洲黑天鵝事件啟示錄

金融市場上，經常將難以預測的極端事件稱為「黑天鵝(Black Swans)」，而黑天鵝多數會對股市造成極為嚴重的負面影響，但投資人不必太過悲觀，我們反而可以從過去經驗學習看待新的挑戰。

回顧從2000年以來，亞洲市場就有多達十次黑天鵝事件，所造成的經濟下滑程度與持續時間不同。如今新冠肺炎在全球肆虐，我們反而可以從過去經驗學習看待新的挑戰。

回顧過去十次黑天鵝事件，股市每跌1%，平均需要12.8個交易日才能回復，回復時間也依照個別事件而不同。參照圖一：在1997年，亞洲金融風暴促使MSCI亞洲指數下跌44.3%，市場花了245個交易日回復到風暴前的水準；而在2000年的網路泡沫危機，MSCI亞洲指數跌幅高達51.9%，市場則花了687個交易日才回復；發生於2008年的全球金融風暴則造成最嚴重的影響，市場崩跌59%，並且恢復期最久，高達2264個交易日。

圖一：黑天鵝事件往往伴隨著復甦契機1


ten_black_swans_v3


金融風暴的本質及政策制定者的反應都將會決定經濟復甦的速度，然而風雨之後必有天晴，投資人不必太過悲觀。在風向不明朗的時刻，最糟糕的狀況就是賣在低點，最好的策略就是抱持著長期投資觀念。當資產價格下跌，就是絕佳的買點。


資料來源：
1 Bloomberg, from 29 December 1999 to 24 March 2020. Price return index, in US dollar terms. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific index is an index that captures large and mid-cap representation across five Developed Markets countries and nine Emerging Markets countries in the Asia Pacific region. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. An investment cannot be made in an index. This material represents an assessment of the market environment as of a specific date. It is subject to change and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Drawdowns are calculated from the start of the Black Swan event to the next bottom. Recovery periods start from the bottom to the pre-crisis index level. Duration of Recovery refers to the “trading days” that the index recovers from the bottom to the previous high. The general concepts shared are for educational purposes only and not for the use in the marketing or sale of any Eastspring investment products. Viewers are advised to be cautious if they intend to invest in any products that are used in the illustrations as the illustrations do not cover the full spectrum of considerations required in making an investment decision.

This document is produced by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited and issued in:

Singapore and Australia (for wholesale clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore, is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Australian laws.

Hong Kong by Eastspring Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

Indonesia by PT Eastspring Investments Indonesia, an investment manager that is licensed, registered and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Malaysia by Eastspring Investments Berhad (531241-U).

United States of America (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is registered with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission as a registered investment adviser.

European Economic Area (for professional clients only) and Switzerland (for qualified investors only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A., 26, Boulevard Royal, 2449 Luxembourg, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg, registered with the Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (Luxembourg), Register No B 173737.

United Kingdom (for professional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Luxembourg) S.A. - UK Branch, 125 Old Broad Street, London EC2N 1AR.

Chile (for institutional clients only) by Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited (UEN: 199407631H), which is incorporated in Singapore and is licensed and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws which differ from Chilean laws.

The afore-mentioned entities are hereinafter collectively referred to as Eastspring Investments.

The views and opinions contained herein are those of the author on this page, and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected in other Eastspring Investments’ communications. This document is solely for information purposes and does not have any regard to the specific investment objective, financial situation and/or particular needs of any specific persons who may receive this document. This document is not intended as an offer, a solicitation of offer or a recommendation, to deal in shares of securities or any financial instruments. It may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Eastspring Investments. Reliance upon information in this posting is at the sole discretion of the reader. Please consult your own professional adviser before investing.

Investment involves risk. Past performance and the predictions, projections, or forecasts on the economy, securities markets or the economic trends of the markets are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of Eastspring Investments or any of the funds managed by Eastspring Investments.

Information herein is believed to be reliable at time of publication. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Eastspring Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Where lawfully permitted, Eastspring Investments does not warrant its completeness or accuracy and is not responsible for error of facts or opinion nor shall be liable for damages arising out of any person’s reliance upon this information. Any opinion or estimate contained in this document may subject to change without notice.

Eastspring Investments (excluding JV companies) companies are ultimately wholly-owned/indirect subsidiaries/associate of Prudential plc of the United Kingdom. Eastspring Investments companies (including JV’s) and Prudential plc are not affiliated in any manner with Prudential Financial, Inc., a company whose principal place of business is in the United States of America.