摘要
聯邦公開市場委員會1月會議聲明及聯準會主席鮑爾在記者會上均表示會有重大的政策變化，市場視此為稍微鷹派立場，降低年內降息預期。我們持有稍微不同的看法，從鮑爾的言談中，我們認為聯準會仍維持鴿派立場。聯準會清楚表示未來行動將取決於經濟數據而定，但我們預計就業市場可能出現疲弱情況，尤其敏感的因素，意味著即使3月降息機會不大，5月也可能會降息。
聯準會：此時暫緩降息，但視乎失業率而定
市場主要基於聯邦公開市場委員會1月會議聲明中其中兩句的聲明而解讀當局持鷹派立場。其中會議聲明中的字眼，由：「通膨已朝委員會2%目標取得進展，但仍然略高。」改為：「通膨仍然略高。」
我們認為，刪除「取得進展」的措辭，看起來降息機會渺芒，並令市場認為聯準會憂慮的通膨問題縈繞不散。然而，當鮑爾被問到降息問題時，他說其中的涵義並無改變，就是對12月的通膨水平下跌可作正面解釋，他預期通膨有望進一步下跌，以及聲明措辭變動純粹是精簡句子。
鮑爾在記者會上聲明措辭變動帶來的其他重大影響，就是「我們將集中關注通膨是否取得實質進展或就業市場疲弱才會考慮降息」，隨之一句「我們無須急於調整貨幣政策立場。」市場解讀此為暗示3月降息機會不大，而5月會否降息也未明朗。
市場對此作出反應，預計5月份聯邦公開市場委員會會議的降息幅度，將由會議前估計的15.3基點，降至會議後的12.3基點，全年降息幅度由49.6基點，降至46.2基點。
雖然我們認為聯準會幾乎肯定會在3月仍會暫緩降息，但當局會觀乎數據而作出調整，鮑爾其他的多份聲明也令我們相信聯準會傾向寬鬆政策。 他形容當前政策具有「實質性的限制性」。這意味著底線是政策仍有很多放寬的空間。
另外，他清楚指出，儘管聯邦公開市場委員會希望通膨進一步回落至2%的目標，「但不是說要等到通膨降至2%的目標才再降息」。經過4年來通膨持續處於2%以上，聯準會主席認為，在通膨率降至2%之前，再降息還是可以的，估計這是由於他認為政策具有「實質性的限制性」。
在這情況下，我們認為鮑爾有關失業率的評論是非常重要的。他說：「就業市場不是重大通膨壓力的來源」及「就業市場無須進一步疲弱，以達致聯準會的通膨目標。」
綜合而言，我們認為這些聲明顯示，聯準會可能會對失業率持續上升作出回應，即使通膨維持在接近現時水平，失業率仍由現時的4.1%持續上升。
近期的勞動市場數據顯示，就業市場仍然強勁，1月至2月份失業率上升的機會不大。4週平均首次申領失業救濟金人數跌至21.25萬人，是去年4月以來最低水平。美國挑戰者企業裁員近月已回落。
最具說服力的是消費數據。美國剛公布的第四季度GDP成長由第三季度的3.1%降至以年率計按季成長2.3%，低於市場預期，私人消費成長由3.7%升至4.2%，最終私人銷售持續強勁，有望高於3.2%。整體成長放緩主要來自存貨下跌，這情況將於本年第一季逆轉。
基本問題是，由於經濟持續穩健成長，聯準會維持暫緩降息。假設關稅措施的重大政策震盪不會對股市造成影響，也不會令消費者減少消費，我們預期第一季度的經濟成長會維持在2%或以上，並有望延續至第二季度。
在這情況下，除非通膨在往後連續數月持續下降，否則聯準會在3月可能仍維持利率不變，並很可能在5月仍繼續暫緩降息。住宅租金下跌及樓價回穩，顯示通膨有下行壓力，但回落幅度又並未大於CPI其他成份的跌幅，尤其是假如美國總統川普於2月1日對墨西哥和加拿大徵收25%額外關稅。
然而，我們認為，假如失業率上升至4.3%以上，聯準會可能會改變態度將預示降息。
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