摘要
- 隨著市場因應聯準會政策轉向進行部署，貨幣市場基金投資人面臨報酬下降及無法實現投資目標的風險。債券提供鎖定當前吸引殖利率以及捕捉資本增值潛力的機會。話雖如此，投資人應關注不太直觀的存續期策略以及市場認定的「最佳點」。
- ESG 投資熱潮或許正在退卻，但我們認為 ESG 風險仍被低估。了解並善用這些風險可能是實現超額報酬的潛在來源。
- 透過靈活的存續期管理、深入的信用研究及持續的 ESG 參與，主動型債券基金經理人能夠化危為機。
聯準會主席鮑威爾在 8 月的傑克遜霍爾會議上表明將在 9 月降息，並警告美國勞動市場的下行風險已經增加。撰寫本文時1，債券市場定價預期 2024 年剩餘時間將降息 100 個基點，但債券市場往往反應過度— 2024 年年初，市場預計將降息 7 次。
堅持投資長期債券
隨著市場因應聯準會政策轉向進行部署，投資人可能面臨的最大風險之一是投放在貨幣市場基金的資金報酬率不斷下降。據目前全球貨幣市場基金規模達 6.2 萬億美元2。隨著央行降息，債券將受惠於資本增值，尤其是存續期較長的債券。亞洲方面，債券殖利率處於十年高位，也為投資人帶來吸引的收益來源。
然而，雖然存續期較長的債券似乎是一筆簡單的交易，但我們注意到未來數月仍存在很多不確定因素。中東衝突擴散可能引起石油供應衝擊，並再次觸發通膨憂慮。美國大選動向的變化也可能影響市場信心及風險溢價。隨著聯準會在避免經濟衰退與控制通貨膨脹之間尋求微妙平衡，因此市場仍有可能連番波動。
美國財政預算赤字使得長遠形勢更為複雜。如果共和黨在即將舉行的大選中掌控眾議院、參議院及總統府，則存在財政開支增加的風險，從而可能推高殖利率。由於市場觀點可能迅速變化，存續期持倉需要靈活管理。與此同時，透過在債券投資組合中偏好優質債券，投資人應能更有效應對市場波動。
尋找真正的最佳選擇
隨著投資人開始鎖定殖利率，部分投資人將亞洲債券市場中的BB級信用視為最佳選擇。BB級債券的評級低於投資級別債券，雖然屬於非投資級別，但其中很多債券被認為具備穩定的基本因素及評級上調的潛力。因此，相對於投資級別信用，BB級債券的殖利率增幅﹙介於100至150個基點）較有吸引力，尤其是考慮到其低波動特性。根據我們的分析，BB級債券的波動似乎低於BBB級債券。見圖1。
圖1、期權調整利差對比波動
透過深入分析，我們發現了亞洲 BB 級債券低波動的原因。目前的 BB 級債券市場由印度信用主導，這些信用受到印度強勁的結構性成長趨勢及充足的國內流動性支持，因此其估值更接近投資級別債券。
上述分析也因債券市場長期低波動而受到扭曲，此情況往往為 BB 級信用創造有利環境。然而，如果我們觀察最近兩個債券波動高的時期，例如新冠疫情爆發期間以及聯準會在 2022 年下半年展開新一輪激進升息週期時，BB 級債券的拋售程度遠高於 BBB 級債券。圖2。
圖2、亞洲 BB 級債券及 BBB 級債券的利差表現
因此，投資人需承擔當中風險。這並不表示市場上沒有吸引的 BB 級債券，但顯然 BB 級信用各有不同，我們仍然強烈主張進行深入的信用研究及嚴格的盡職調查。
應對 ESG 風險以實現超額報酬
投資人在仔細考慮存續期、信用及貨幣風險時，可能仍然低估了具有重大財務影響的環境、社會及管治﹙ESG﹚風險。如果我們將 Gartner 技術成熟度曲線（追蹤新科技或創新由過度追捧至泡沫破裂的發展階段的指標）應用於 ESG 投資，鑑於對漂綠行為的憂慮及對 ESG 行動主義的反感，ESG 投資似乎已經過了炒作階段，投資人或正處於普遍失望的時期3。圖3。
圖3、Gartner 技術成熟度曲線
我們認為，對 ESG 投資的炒作減弱是正面發展，也是探討具有重大財務影響的 ESG 風險的時機。事實上，氣候、社會及管治風險對公司構成真正的財務影響，並在中期內影響其經濟可行性及獲利能力。最近數月，勞資糾紛已導致亞洲幾間汽車製造商的營運受阻。與此同時，水資源短缺會增加高度依賴水作為生產投入的企業的營運壓力。除了農業及食品與飲料行業外，其也會影響紡織、鋼鐵生產及製藥業。水災等極端氣候事件也會嚴重損害資產價值。了解這些風險、其重要性以及公司如何調整其業務模式來應對這些風險，有助於為投資人帶來豐厚的中長線報酬。
化危為機
本文描述的各種風險絕非詳盡無遺。然而，所有風險均為主動型債券投資人帶來機會，透過信用分析、存續期、貨幣及流動性管理來產生超額報酬。這一點在未來數月尤其重要，因為市場波動預計將持續攀升 ，而美國也將推行新的利率政策。駕馭 ESG 風險及機會也可成為超額報酬的重要來源。除了簡單地排除及避免投資可能面臨監管制裁、社會問題及管治失誤的公司外，投資人也需透過積極參與，發掘被低估的投資機會，並識別那些致力評估及解決具有重大財務影響的 ESG 風險的公司。由於亞洲地區具備加速能源轉型的龐大潛力，為高碳排放公司提供資金以轉向更可持續慣例的轉型債券預計將迅速成長4，這將為主動型債券基金經理帶來充足空間，把風險轉化成投資機遇。
更多文章
1. 截至 2024 年 8 月 27 日。
2. 彭博。截至 2024 年 8 月。
3. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/08/heres-where-we-are-in-the-esg-investing-hype-cycle/
4. https://www.theasset.com/article/52120/global-sustainable-bond-issuance-falls-20-in-q2
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