摘要
經濟政策不確定性指數顯示，近期關稅措施推出、保護主義日增，以及通膨前景未明，均反映政策不確定性加劇。該指數量度在各報章中，包含經濟、政策及不確定性相關用語的文章出現頻率，反映企業及投資人的憂慮與日俱增。有趣的是，這種不確定性與金融市場的波動之間，顯然出現不相關情況。見圖1。
上述情況或有多種成因，即部分投資人仍抱持「這只是談判策略」的觀點，或市場認為川普的支持成長政策可抵銷波動，但實情是，川普「把不確定性武器化」之舉在其第二任期已告升級。毫無疑問，關稅帶來的痛苦在宏觀經濟及企業層面均會引發連鎖反應。因此，市場可能持續出現波動。
圖1：不確定性與金融市場波動之間的不相關情況
資料來源：彭博、經濟政策不確定性，以及瀚亞投資，2025年2月高盛的經濟師估計，對加拿大及墨西哥徵收全面關稅將導致核心通膨率上升0.7%，國內生產總值下降0.4%1。投資人尤其關注消費物價被推高的可能性，他們擔心通膨再度上揚可能促使美國聯準會（停止降息措施。正如預期，美國聯準會在3月「按兵不動」降息，主席鮑爾表示，官員在新總統上任後「正在觀察有何政策實施」。
增強投資組合的韌性是關鍵
為確保在變化莫測的經濟環境中保持韌性，投資人應作分散投資，並調整投資組合以增強防守性。例如，引入低波動策略可增強整體投資組合的防守性。防守性投資組合通常旨在於市場出現拋售時減低損失。
言簡意賅，不妨以MSCI所有國家亞太區（日本除外）最低波動指數為代表，看看低波動風格在川普總統第一任期內（即其政府於 2018 年徵收關稅時）的反應。2018年3月至2018年12月期間，美中兩國互相交鋒，對多種商品徵收關稅。
對多種商品徵收關稅導致市場不確定性及波動性增加。與貿易戰直接相關的股票市場錄得顯著跌幅，尤其是在下半年。見圖 2。相比之下，亞洲低波動指數為下行市場提供了防禦力，在整個期間展現韌性。
圖2：2018年美中貿易戰期間關稅造成的影響
資料來源：LSEG DataStream、MSCI、標準普爾、瀚亞投資，2025年2月低波動策略屬防守性質
鑑於全球經濟形勢不斷變化，我們為評估關稅對低波動投資組合的潛在影響進行了一次壓力測試。我們利用阿拉丁風險管理系統的全球貿易保護主義情境，評估大幅加徵關稅措施對全球貿易、通膨及利率的影響，包括受影響國家的報復行動。該測試假設加徵關稅會使國內通膨上升，導致利率上升及美元走強，並考慮到供應鏈內高度依賴非美國原料投入的美國公司，它們可能遭受拋售。
結果顯示，低波動防守性風格繼續抵禦下行風險，其防守持倉也帶來約 3% 的超額表現。見圖3。儘管如此，我們完全留意到市場是前瞻性的，而川普政府對宏觀經濟及市場的影響可能會不時改變。
圖3：全球貿易保護主義對損益的影響
資料來源：貝萊德阿拉丁、瀚亞投資。低波動風格基於最低波動指數，2025年2月主動投資有助應付特殊風險
除政策不確定性外，中國人工智慧模型DeepSeek突然問世也震動市場，並以科技股所受影響最為顯著。當有關消息於1月27日傳出，那斯達克100指數即下跌 3%，輝達股價則急挫 17%，成為市場歷來最大跌幅之一。事件對人工智慧產業來說是一隻黑天鵝，DeepSeek的開源模式對以美國為主的主要參與者（例如Google的Gemini及微軟的OpenAI）的專屬人工智慧產品構成直接挑戰。
除對人工智慧產業帶來顛覆性影響外，這宗特殊事件也諷刺地凸顯分散投資的需要。儘管主要市場指數整體下跌，但在表層之下，標普500指數當中351隻股票（約佔指數成分股70%）當日收盤時均走升。這是自2000年以來，在以標普500指數衡量的整體市場報跌超過1%的情況下，有最高數量的股票獲得正數表現！是以往25年未曾出現的情況。
這種價格行為進一步強調投資組合多元化的重要性。透過主動投資於超過350個持倉，投資人可受益於這個事實：拋售情況非無差別進行，市場分辦了贏家及輸家。此外，如在產業、國家／地區，以及（更重要的）投資風格上，使投資組合多元化，終可取得具韌性的表現。透過低波動股票策略增強投資組合的緩衝能力，有助緩解下行風險，可使在2025年實現更穩定報酬。
圖4：在跌市中表現優於大市的股票數量
資料來源：彭博、標準普爾及及瀚亞投資，2025年1月更多文章
1. 市場對貿易戰2.0的看法。 www.gs.com/research/
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