摘要
- 亞洲債券殖利率處於多年高位，為投資人提供吸引及穩定的收益來源。根據過往數據，當亞洲投資等級債券殖利率高於 5% 時，這些債券在 12 個月內實現正總報酬的機率超過 80%。
- 亞洲適度成長及溫和通膨的總體經濟環境，對亞洲債券是利多。由於亞洲市場的定價已大致反映降息因素，當各國央行最終下調利率時，亞洲債券可能更為受惠。
- 與美國及歐洲投資級別債券相比，亞洲投資等級債券的殖利率具競爭力，並且由於每單位存續期的殖利率較高，其有望在收益與風險之間為投資人提供更吸引的權衡。
自今年年初以來，債券市場的主流觀點發生了顯著轉變。市場最初以「聯準會政策轉向」為中心，預計 2024 年將推行多次降息，但目前的焦點已轉變為「利率長期高檔」的立場。通膨數據連續數月高於預期以及美國經濟仍然強韌的跡象導致市場出現這一轉變，而不同期限債券的殖利率也因此上升。
雖然我們的基本觀點仍然是美國經濟及通膨將放緩至聯準會最終降息的程度，但降息的時機及幅度已變得更不確定。我們認為投資債券的理據仍然充分，尤其是亞洲債券。
投資亞洲債券的案例
亞洲債券殖利率處於多年高位，為投資人提供具吸引力及穩定的收益來源，同時，假如聯準會政策提前轉向，短期貨幣市場利率恐會較預期更早下降，屆時亞洲債券將也有機會抵禦此類潛在下跌。
債券殖利率上升的好處被市場低估。首先，投資人無需大幅增加所承擔的信用風險，便能夠獲得顯著的收益。如果通膨重新加速上升，利率將需要大幅上升，導致債券出現資本損失：這並非我們目前的基本觀點。另一種情景是，如果美國經濟出現硬著陸，債券將跑贏股票，而國庫債券及投資等級債券的抗跌力很可能高於較非投資等級債券。因此，投資等級債券能夠為投資人帶來極好的投資組合分散優勢。
亞洲適度成長及溫和通膨的總體經濟環境也利多亞洲債券。受健康的外部需求帶動，韓國、台灣、馬來西亞、新加坡及台灣等較依賴貿易的亞洲經濟體與受惠於強勁內需的其他亞洲經濟體同步發展。過去三個月，亞洲的實際出口加速成長，創下2021年後新高。全球新訂單與庫存比率有所改善，意味著今年的外部需求將保持強勁。已開發市場的資本支出週期復甦也有助於維持亞洲的出口。此外，隨著內需正常化，加上投入成本上升的過程已大致完成並在經濟中反映，亞洲大部分地區（中國除外）的通膨已經放緩。
儘管通膨受控，但亞洲央行並不急於降息，亞洲市場的定價已大致反映降息的因素。這意味著當亞洲央行最終放寬利率政策時，亞洲當地貨幣債券可能更為受惠。
偏好優質債券
由於利差已大幅收窄，加上亞洲非投資等級債券年初至今表現強勁，我們偏好亞洲投資等級債券。地緣政治局勢持續緊張也導致我們偏好優質債券。如上文所述，面對目前環境，高債券殖利率能夠提高債券報酬，並抵禦潛在損失。我們檢視了亞洲投資級別債券殖利率至少達 5% 的每個月份，並在圖2中分析了這些月份的未來 12 個月報酬。觀察結果顯示有 86% 月份錄得正報酬。
與此同時，亞洲投資等級債券市場為投資人提供多元化的投資機會。摩根大通亞洲信用指數（包含由亞洲區的企業、主權及準主權實體發行的債務）中，約 85% 債券被評為投資級別。亞洲區大部分主權債券均擁有投資級別，並且預計在中期內將保持該信用評級。圖3。這反過來應該有助支持這些國家的準主權債券以及國家相關企業債券的評級。亞洲地區也匯聚了一些全球規模最大及營運最佳的公司。預計公司基本因素將大致保持穩定。儘管槓桿率輕微上升，但仍處於可控範圍。重要的是，亞洲公司能夠抵禦過去數年利息成本上升的環境。
短期而言，預計 2024 年亞洲美元計價投資級別債券的淨供應量為負，利多債券價格。長遠而言，多個亞洲經濟體的人口老化及結構性經常帳盈餘為債券需求帶來支持。亞洲長線投資人不斷增加的穩定需求有望令亞洲債券的報酬更加穩定。
與美國及歐洲投資級別債券相比，亞洲投資等級債券的殖利率具競爭力，並且由於每單位存續期的殖利率較高（存續期是衡量債券對利率變化的敏感度的指標），其有可能在收益與風險之間為投資人提供更吸引的權衡。
把握投資機會
由於信用利差偏窄及聯準會放寬政策的時間表並不確定，套利在中期內將成為債券報酬的重要推動因素。我們看好亞洲投資等級債券，並認為在目前的殖利率下，投資人能夠鎖定優質收益，同時受惠於分散投資的好處。根據過往數據，當亞洲投資等級債券殖利率高於 5% 時，其實現 12 個月正報酬的機率超過 80%。亞洲投資等級債券的多元化投資範圍為主動型基金經理帶來提高超額報酬的機會。與此同時，利多的供需情況，在中長期內為亞洲債券帶來支撐。
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1. 穆迪、標普及惠譽評級，擷取自2024年4月的彭博數據；展望觀點：Stb = 穩定；Neg = 負面；Pos = 正面。
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