摘要
進入 川普2.0 時代，投資人將面臨更多關稅（尤其是針對中國的關稅）、更高通膨及更強勢的美元。在此背景下，投資人相較亞洲和新興市場資產更看好美國股票和美元。
雖然川普已對從中國進口的商品徵收10%的關稅，但美國經濟成長面臨的風險不斷上升，或需重新思考先前的策略。近期由中國人工智慧實驗室Deepseek引發的美國人工智慧股票震盪，也凸顯了擁擠交易和集中持倉的風險。我們的量化股票策略團隊分析顯示，儘管標普500指數在1月27日整體下跌且人工智慧相關股票也大幅下挫，但約有70%的標普500指數成分股當日收盤上漲，表明分散投資組合的重要性。
美國例外論風險上升
美國經歷了一段大幅成長期，儘管2025年美國仍可能保持十國集團中最強勁的經濟，但對於「美國例外論」高度共識觀點的風險正在上升。美國的強勁成長主要由生產力提升所帶動，其中輸入勞工發揮了重要作用。因此，川普政府限制移民的計劃可能會在中期内抑制美國的成長。如果關稅引發通膨壓力，也會對美國消費者造成額外負擔。如果川普總統對墨西哥和加拿大徵收25%的關稅，並對能源進口徵收10%的關稅，這些關稅連同對中國徵收的10%關稅可能導致美國經濟年成長率下降0.3%至0.8%，美國通膨率按年上升0.4%至0.8%。
在川普再次當選之後，對美國減稅和放寬管制的預期被視為刺激美國經濟成長和通膨的因素，推動美國資產及美元走高。美元指數接近1985年和2002年以來的歷史高點。見圖1。雖然聯準會在1月維持利率不變，但如果美國失業率上升，不排除2025年 進一步降息 的可能性。這可能會削弱美元，不過幅度不會太大，因為預期其他央行也會降息。從歷史上看，美元見頂對亞洲及新興市場資產有利。
圖1.美元指數
資料來源：Tradingeconomics.com. 2025年1月。迎接波動
除關稅外，地緣政治、美元強勢及中國政策轉變等眾多因素均可能影響今年的市場走勢。見圖2。
圖2.您認為2025年的主要市場驅動力是什麼？
資料來源：瀚亞投資。這項民意調查於瀚亞投資在新加坡及香港舉辦的2025年市場展望活動中進行，超過100名機構投資人出席。鑑於市場可能持續波動，投資人需要考慮幾個關鍵因素。首先，美國股票及美元估值偏高；從歷史來看，購買價值被低估的資產長期而言更為有利。其次，儘管過去三年動量交易的主導地位降低了一般指數的多元化程度，但我們的多元資產團隊在政策不確定性較高的時期更加強調分散投資和風險管理的重要性。派發 股息 及呈現 低波動性 的股票有助降低投資組合的整體風險。同時，新興市場股票估值相對較低，與美國股票的高價形成強烈對比。由於亞洲及新興市場有超出預期的潛力，因此可為投資人帶來真正的分散投資效益。
2025年，主動投資對投資人將更加重要。由於區域/國家層面上的關稅不確定性揮之不去，指數回報和被動型投資環境將充滿挑戰。
多元化的主動投資機會
儘管亞洲及新興市場在國家和地區層面面臨潛在挑戰，但我們的投資團隊仍利用以下獨特驅動因素，在證券層面發掘獲取 阿爾法收益的機會。見圖3。
圖3.獨特驅動因素與機會
資料來源：瀚亞投資。2025年1月。亞洲及新興市場的前景將取決於聯準會政策、區域動態及不斷變化的投資人情緒之間的相互影響。即將公布的美國失業率數據將對聯準會的決策起關鍵作用。儘管聯邦公開市場委員會1月的聲明和主席鮑爾的新聞發佈會出現了市場認為略偏鷹派的重大變化，導致今年降息預期降低，但我們認為主席鮑爾的立場仍傾向於鴿派。聯準會正密切關注數據以決定下一步行動，尤其對勞動力市場的任何潛在疲弱保持敏感。這表明，即使3月降息的可能性不大，5月降息的可能性仍然存在。亞洲及新興市場可望從美國降息及美元走弱中獲益。
本評論參考瀚亞於1月在新加坡和香港舉辦的2025年市場展望活動中分享的若干重要觀點。
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