摘要
由於DeepSeek出現突破，加上中國政策制定者轉向加強支持經濟，對中國的投資情緒似乎有所好轉。我們認為，中國股市的潛在復甦將加強環球新興市場﹙中國除外﹚策略的優勢。
透過環球新興市場﹙中國除外﹚策略，投資人能參與因中國主導新興市場指數而被忽視的吸引新興市場投資機會，同時獨立管理對中國市場的持倉。儘管中國股市估值吸引且具上升潛力，但其他因素也可能會影響投資決定。由於中國在環球股票指數及投資組合中的權重仍然顯著偏低，其在MSCI新興市場指數的份額及主導地位將持續上升。新興市場﹙中國除外﹚策略使投資人能夠獨立表達對這個關鍵市場的觀點。
MSCI中國指數與MSCI新興市場（中國除外）指數之間的相關性下降，反映環球新興市場﹙中國除外﹚策略的分散投資優勢不斷提升。見圖1。
圖1. MSCI中國指數對比MSCI新興市場（中國除外）指數的52週相關性
資料來源：FactSet、MSCI、高盛環球投資研究，截至2025年3月7日。圖表僅供說明。所描述的指數未經管理，不可直接投資。中國在MSCI新興市場指數中的權重高（30.7% 1），因此對新興市場報酬舉足輕重。過去10年，新興市場股票跑輸已開發市場股票，主要受到中國市場的弱勢及美國股票的出色表現所拖累。若剔除中國及美國，兩者的報酬更為接近。見圖2。
圖2. 10年年化報酬比較
拓闊投資範圍
透過將中國剔出環球新興市場投資範圍，投資人可以參與傳統環球新興市場策略可能忽視的其他新興市場投資機會。其中，部分市場目前的市帳率估值較其10年平均估值低近1個標準差。見圖3。
圖3. 部分新興市場的市帳率估值
資料來源：Factset、MSCI、高盛環球經濟、商品及策略研究、瀚亞投資，估值截至2024年12月31日。指數權重截至2024年12月31日。註：PBx = 市帳率。本文所載資訊在發佈時被視為可靠，所載的任何意見或估計可隨時更改而無需通知。以印尼為例，豐富的能源轉型金屬儲備及其他因素正推動該國經濟轉型，預計到2050年，其將成為全球第四大經濟體。印尼的經濟成長應推動中產階級對消費品及金融服務的需求。與此同時，繼去年表現遜色後，巴西的吸引估值正在推動今年的投資報酬。雖然貨幣緊縮政策影響了其2025年經濟前景，而民粹主義措施仍構成風險，但由於政府支持率在2026年大選前下降，市場對新總統及更合理的財政政策寄予更大期望。此外，利率已見頂的預期也提振投資情緒。
與此同時，科技及金融行業在環球新興市場﹙中國除外﹚的權重較高。見圖4。雖然DeepSeek的突破推動中國科技股上升，但我們的價值型投資策略旨在於科技行業較不「矚目」的股票中發掘吸引的投資機會。金融股方面，我們在各個地區物色投資機會。這些投資機會受惠於利率長期高企以及貸款加速成長；而貸款成長則受政府及企業資本開支上升以及消費貸款增加所帶動。
圖4. 行業權重差異 – MSCI新興市場（中國除外）指數對比MSCI新興市場指數
資料來源：資料來源︰MSCI。截至2025年2月底。提高靈活性以應對後關稅時代
由於新興市場的市場效率及資訊透明度較低，主動型投資策略在新興市場向來較已發展市場奏效。展望未來，隨著關稅對新興市場國家及公司產生直接及間接衝擊，主動型投資策略可能更顯重要。雖然在川普首個任期內，墨西哥及越南等中國以外國家顯著受惠於供應鏈多元化的趨勢，但現屆川普政府對可能被中國用作繞過關稅措施的國家加強審查。由於墨西哥也面臨關稅威脅，新興市場投資人需要具備強大研究能力，以應對當前的複雜環境。環球新興市場﹙中國除外﹚投資範圍也涵蓋大量中小型股，針對這些股票的研究往往較少，因此需要採取主動型投資策略以產生超額報酬。
重新審視新興市場配置
自2010年以來，新興市場一直跑輸已開發市場，但目前其似乎正處於轉折點。這輪轉變受到 「美國例外」觀點及美元可能見頂、對比已開發市場的成長差距擴大以及企業收益強韌的因素支持。此外，吸引估值以及投資人的偏低配置比重為新興市場牛市奠定基礎。
環球新興市場﹙中國除外﹚策略減低了中國在新興市場指數中的極高權重，發掘其他新興市場蘊藏的吸引機會，使投資人能夠獨立表達對中國市場的觀點。隨著中國股市在年初至今反彈，投資人更有需要重新審視其新興市場策略。
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1. MSCI。截至2024年2月底。
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