摘要

 
  • 絕大部分亞太區美元債券發行人專注於國內市場,因此相對不受美國關稅影響
  • 面對不明朗前景,挑選行業/發行人及部署投資組合時需要保持靈活
  • 我們建議採取偏向防守型的立場,並偏好投資級別及精選的較高評級的非投資等級債


  • 如同其他資產類別,自「解放日」公佈關稅措施以來,亞洲債券市場經歷顯著波動。作為參考,自2025年4月2日起,摩根大通亞洲投資級債指數的Z利差增加約30個基點。雖然迅速的定價反應可以理解,但只要靈活審慎挑選行業及發行人,投資人仍能駕馭不明朗環境。

    圖1:亞洲投資等級債勸利差顯著增加
    asian-credits-positioned-in-defensive-plays_1.png

    資料來源:彭博、摩根大通亞洲投資級債指數,截至2025年4月7日

    亞洲債券年初走強

    亞洲債券年初的財務狀況穩健;亞洲投資級別發行人(中國房地產除外)的平均槓桿率1估計為1.1倍,屬健康水平。由於債務到期結構合理,加上融資市場多頭,投資級別發行人也維持良好流動性。

    亞太區絕大部分美元債券發行人的業務以國內市場為主,因此我們預計其相對不受美國直接徵收關稅的風險影響。然而,不明朗經濟前景引發的次級影響可能構成挑戰。

    評估關稅影響

    少數亞太區債券發行人——尤其是汽車業、鋼鐵業及鋁業發行人——已經受到美國徵收關稅的影響,但相關發行人僅佔該亞太區債券市場的一小部分。截至2025年3月31日,金屬/採礦業(涵蓋鋼鐵業及鋁業發行人)及汽車業佔摩根大通亞太區信貸指數(涵蓋日本及澳洲)4.3%左右。

    圖2:摩根大通亞洲債亞太區指數的行業分佈
    asian-credits-positioned-in-defensive-plays_2_1.png

    資料來源:摩根大通,2025年3月31日

    即將出現的貿易不確定性較大機會對亞洲宏觀經濟前景產生次級影響,並導致經濟需求轉弱、投資活動減少及個人消費放緩。依賴貿易的經濟體較大機會受到經濟活動放緩的衝擊。視乎外匯錯配的重大程度,個別經濟體的外匯壓力也可能影響發行人的信貸前景。

    潛在贏家與輸家

    關稅局勢仍未明朗,各經濟體正準備對美國採取補救性或報復性行動。投資人需要了解措施對不同行業的具體影響,以及最新的貿易形勢。面對不明朗前景,挑選行業/發行人及部署投資組合時需要保持靈活。整體而言,亞太區信貸市場前景並非只有壞消息。我們建議採取偏向防守型的立場,並偏好投資級別及精選的較高評級的非投資等級債。

    行業方面,我們偏好受惠於國內消費的行業,例如公用事業、基建、必需品零售,以及獲強力支持且較不受關稅或宏觀經濟引發的不確定性影響的政府相關實體。由於信貸狀況具防守性,我們預計相關行業的融資渠道將更為穩健。

    圖3:評估關稅對各行業的影響
    asian-credits-positioned-in-defensive-plays_3.png


    整體而言,我們偏好投資級別發行人,因為其財務及流動性狀況更加穩健。非投資等級債券方面,我們選債時更趨審慎,並在價格進一步波動時等待合適機會。

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