摘要
隨著美國日前公佈新關稅措施，美國實際關稅稅率在不足四個月內由2024年底的2.2％上升至近20％。亞洲方面，按影響程度大致排序，川普的關稅衝擊應最不利於越南、韓國、日本及中國的經濟成長。雖然目前仍需更多時間及具體情況來評估政策對經濟及行業的次級及三級影響，但隨之而來的市場波動應為主動型投資人帶來機會。
瀚亞首席經濟學家Ray Farris認為，若相關關稅措施持續實施，預料今年的美國國內生產總值成長率將由2.5%下降至約0.6%至0.8%。關稅實際上是針對消費及投資的稅項，歷史顯示，由於資源轉向生產力較低的用途，其也會造成更廣泛的福祉損失。除了這些關稅措施外，美國已實施其他財政緊縮措施（約佔國內生產總值0.1%至0.2%），並迅速收緊移民政策（預計導致美國國內生產總值損失0.3%至0.5%）。
此外，由於美國貿易夥伴（尤其是中國、歐盟及加拿大）可能採取報復性措施，美國出口預計將會走弱。根據我們評估，這些衝擊最終可能對經濟造成超出預期的打擊並引發衰退，其風險至少相當於市場定價反映的衰退風險，後者已飆升至近50%。
亞洲方面，按影響程度大致排序，川普的關稅衝擊應最不利於越南、韓國、日本及中國的經濟成長。年初至今，這些國家的實際關稅稅率分別上升至47%、16%、20%及48%。然而，要衡量這些關稅稅率的升幅，需要考慮到各國對美國出口佔該國的國內生產總值的比例。
整體而言，基於以下三大原因，亞洲所有經濟體今年均可能面對顯著的經濟成長下行壓力：
請下載報告，深入了解措施對亞洲的投資影響。
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