【2022投資展望】ESG加速發展

投資人已經從過去質疑「為何」需要責任投資,轉向進一步了解「如何」才能實踐責任投資。在氣候變遷的加劇下,環保永續與責任投資迫在眉睫,在投資的同時,造福社會更是當前投資人關注的重要議題。

在法國巴黎舉行的《聯合國氣候變化框架公約》第26次締約方會議(COP26)已經就氣候變遷的政策和時程表達成協議,目標是2030年前將全球升溫控制在小於攝氏1.5度。然而,目前各國仍然未能在降低碳排放方面取得共識。

推動煤炭轉型

為了實現巴黎協定的氣候目標,全球需要減少80%的煤炭能源使用。不過對於當前的亞洲及新興市場國家來說,大量的煤炭廠和礦井仍會是能源和就業的主要來源。

煤炭和化石燃料是亞洲地區的主要能源(2020年主要燃料佔總量百分比)。

資料來源:2021年BP世界能源統計年鑒,摩根史坦利研究報告

新興經濟體的煤炭能源轉型需要由政府制定全面性的轉型目標策略方針。一方面政府要盡可能降低轉型期間對人民的影響,提供人們學習新技能的資源,另一方面則需要集結大量資源興建綠色基礎建設,或改造現有的基礎建設。因此,新興市場的政府和企業會需要大量資金來實現「COP26」的目標。

作為亞洲和新興市場的投資專家,我們有責任幫助新興市場進行能源轉型。在股票和固定收益投資方面,我們支持致力於降低生產碳排放的企業,投資人在企業實現從煤炭到潔淨能源的轉型中,能夠發揮正向影響力。

實現低碳足跡 亞洲國家各展拳腳

部分亞洲經濟體正致力於建設能減緩氣候變遷的碳中和設施。2021年10月,韓國提議在2030年時將溫室氣體排放量以2018年標準減少40%,大幅上修了先前公布的26%減排目標。其中,「氫能源」將是韓國政府達成目標的關鍵。

韓國計劃將氫能源使用量提高,從目前的22萬噸擴大至2030年的390萬噸及2050年的2700萬噸。最新修訂的2030年氫能使用量,已達2019年時韓國政府公布「氫經濟振興路線圖」中的兩倍。

隨著韓國市場對上漲中的環境成本愈來愈關注,企業轉型低碳的營運模式將有助於提高企業的估值,並為投資人提供新的成長機會。許多韓國公司陸續宣布將投入氫經濟計劃,超過43兆韓元的資金將於2030年前注入氫能源市場,用於潔淨氫能的生產、液化清能的生產配送、擴大氫燃料電池供應、以及氫能汽車的製造領域。

相較於韓國希望以氫能做為減少碳足跡的替代能源,其餘亞洲經濟體則開闢不同的減碳模式。舉例來說,中國專注發展電動車市場、印尼打造電動車電池、馬來西亞致力於發展可再生能源。

利用ESG量化方法

數據的量化方法不一常常被視為將ESG納入投資流程的最大阻礙之一。市場對於各家評級機構的標準相互不一致、量化指標不明確、以及數據的不完整應存在質疑。

我們認為儘管ESG量化在過去存在許多挑戰,但當今ESG的數據狀況已經得到極大改善,更全面、可靠及具有可比性的數據已經出現,使用量化方法將ESG納入投資流程具有吸引力。

對於許多投資人而言,「E」(環境)是ESG投資中最重要的部分。因為根據預測,氣候的變遷對大多地區來說衝擊最為嚴重。因此,我們認為將碳指標納入投資決策流程,提高投資組合中加權平均碳強度WACI的評分,將有助於關注永續發展的投資人做出最佳決策。

運用MSCI的碳排放數據,我們可以定量構建出具有WACI特徵,而且不對特定產業、國家、或比票偏好的投資組合。量化方法也提供了靈活性,透過繪製優化不同WACI的投資組合,我們可以在降低投資組合的高碳排產業、減少波動性預期、及提高預期報酬之間的進行權衡。

投資影響

股票

隨著許多企業的商業模式向永續發展看齊,投資機會因而顯現。例如,韓國的汽車產業透過生產氫燃料電動車、清潔車及堆高機創造新的收入來源;造船廠從對氫能運輸船和儲存設施的需求增加中受益。在日本,不少公司已著手制定具體的減碳目標,從長遠來看,這些永續創新為全球帶來競爭力。投資機會方面,我們認為,亞洲的電動車供應鏈將對電動車產業及其上游供應商帶來絕佳機會。

債券

48%的亞洲能源來自煤炭,為了實質地減少碳排放,亞洲需要朝向可再生能源轉型發展。過去兩到三年,我們已看到來自印度的第一批可再生能源債券發行人。展望未來,預期隨著減碳和能源轉型的浪潮,下一波可再生能源的債券發行人將來自中國。

此外,為了達成中國2060年的淨碳中和目標,中國政府將制定政策要求國內企業遵循,進而對企業的中長期發展策略產生影響。隨著企業為永續投資尋找資金,我們也可以合理預期未來中國將發行高度多元化的綠色債券組合。

量化

透過更靈活彈性的量化方法,可以將環境、社會及公司治理納入投資流程;量化策略也有助於以碳排放數據建構出具有WACI特色的投資組合。只要能夠以一致的標準為永續發展制定出明確的衡量標準,量化工具就能成對訂定ESG投資方案的重要技術。

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