我們曾預測 2023 會是充滿挑戰的一年,不幸地,事實證明我們預測正確。中國經濟復甦遜於預期,美國 10 年公債殖利率創下 16 年新高,通膨也居高不下。然而,面對激烈的升息步伐及中東緊張局勢加劇,全球經濟仍保持穩健。2024 年將迎來更多轉變。隨著限制性貨幣政策的影響逐漸浮現,全球經濟將由初期的穩健轉為震盪。相較之下,2023 年成長放緩後,中國經濟會在 2024 年趨於穩定。
通膨壓力減緩後,全球的央行都正處於(或接近)升息循環尾聲,儘管他們擔心此時宣佈戰勝通膨還言之過早。各國可能在幾個月後才會轉向降息。然而,通膨數據持續減緩,將帶給債券新的轉機。我們也在經濟循環末期看好美國及亞洲債券。殖利率飆升的情況下,美國公債將再次成為投資組合中分散風險的工具。股票方面,亞洲(除日本)在 2023 年落後於美國市場;但該地區因為其估值具吸引力,加上 2024 年經濟基本面的利多因素,有望在明年取得更佳表現。
除了經濟循環,全球經濟及投資情勢也將經歷長期的結構性轉變。生成式 AI 將顛覆各個產業及既有的商業模式,而全球供應鏈分散化也將影響經濟前景與投資流向。隨著經濟體朝著「淨零碳排」的未來轉型,投資人也在應用公正轉型(Just Transition)視角審視氣候行動。我們的報告特別指出,新興市場及亞洲在長期轉型的推動及應用上發揮了關鍵作用。
當投資人把握各種轉型帶來的機遇,需要同時留意潛在風險,並謹記 2023 年學到的經驗。由於政策制定者重視信用勝於市場壓力,市場波動將持續存在。投資人需要靈活調整觀點及資產配置。分散投資及風險管理仍然是抵禦市場波動性的關鍵;面對瞬息萬變的市場推動因素,動態資產配置變得日益重要。
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