【美國優質債】2022年1月基金評論

市場總覽:

由於市場投資人擔心聯準會將加快速度取消貨幣刺激措施,美國股票和公司債券在1月份遭到拋售;此外,儘管Omicron爆發的疫情對經濟活動造成壓力,但美國通膨數據仍居高不下,而第四季度財報喜憂參半,減少了財報將優於預期的跡象。

隨著市場消化聯準會將實施緊縮政策,1月份美國公債殖利率曲線走升,在此過程中趨於平緩;2年期殖利率上升45個基點至1.18%,10年期殖利率上升27個基點至1.79%,30年期殖利率上升21個基點至2.11%。

1月份美國投資級債券利差擴大;在股市表現疲軟的情況下,該資產類別最初表現出色,儘管發行量大於預期;然而,由於市場投資人擔憂聯準會進一步政策,下半月投資級債券利差擴大,也推高了殖利率及降低了總報酬。

彭博美國信用指數1月份的總報酬率為-3.2%,因為美國公債的拋售也影響了表現。

1月,所有產業都產生負的超額報酬。通訊(-170個基點)、技術(-154個基點)和非週期性消費(-139個基點)領跌,而超國家(-1個基點)、機構(-7個基點)和地方政府債(-27個基點)相對表現優於大盤(不包括任何低於指數市場價值0.50%的第3級產業) 。

基金總覽:

本基金在1月份為負報酬,表現遜於基準指數(A 美元)。

基金在人壽保險中的超額配置和選債是相對利差報酬的最大貢獻者,貢獻了3個基點。此外,基金在電信無線領域的選債是第二貢獻者,相對利差報酬增加了2個基點。而本基金在軟件/服務和有線及衛星電視是相對利差報酬的最大拖累者,分別減損了3個基點和2個基點。

未來展望:

• 我們仍然認為產業循環和選債對於產生超額報酬仍然至關重要。

  −基本面持續改善;我們專注於關注可能受益的產業(例如,銀行由於當前的評價水準、穩健的資產負債表及利率上升而具有潛力)。

  − 技術面也十分正向;資產類別持續獲得新發行債券之供給而帶來的資金流入。

  − 我們持續關注相對價值,因整體評價水準仍處於歷史低位。

• 目前仍存在市場波動的可能性,尤其是在聯準會縮減資產購買規模並重申升息議題的情況下。

  − 我們將持續尋找機會以重新制定投資策略。

• 市場風險包括聯準會貨幣政策正常化、通膨持續升高,及供應鏈問題將可能對企業盈利產生負面影響。

 
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