【M&G Insight】2022年不可忽略的三件大事

時序進入2021年第四季,M&G投資建議,投資人2022年應該聚焦三件事:

● 成長性:密切觀察新冠肺炎疫情如何影響這股成長力道

● 啟動減債:美國勞動力市場走向與通膨數據將如何影響市場

● 永續性:投資最重要關鍵字—全球瘋「永續」

成長性

近期觀察幾項成長中的數據開始轉趨疲軟,不管從市場信心面或企業獲利面都是如此。例如:多個已開發國家製造業採購經理人指數(Manufacturing PMI)仍守在象徵景氣持續擴張的景氣榮枯線50以上,但與今年初數據達到高峰相比,明顯轉弱。

有趣的是,被視為中國信心指數的財新傳媒(Caixin)PMI指數,已經降到50的分水嶺之下,顯示部分經濟活動開始萎縮。尤其是在新興市場,如東亞與其它地區,開始出現企業獲利成長預估轉弱的情形。

M&G投資認為,新冠肺炎疫情將持續左右全球成長步調,不過,各地經濟成長的力道強弱將「因國而異」。會造成這樣的差別,主要是因為多數已開發國家已達到一定的疫苗接種比例;相較之下,許多開發中國家的接種率遠遠落後,未來不排除還有再度封城的可能性。

如此一來,不但會影響全球經濟復甦腳步,同時也會對價值鏈有長足的影響,因為沒人知道全球製造業的供應鏈何時可能再度「斷鏈」。在隨時可能引爆的風險下,多數國家都備有具支持力道的貨幣政策,準備在危機發生時推出;然而,部分政策工具在可見的未來有望功成身退,因為正常化的背後顯示成長回到軌道,若突然祭出市場沒有預料到的措施,反倒可能引發金融市場激烈波動。

啟動減債

市場預估美國將在2021年年底前啟動減債,然而,美國聯準會主席鮑威爾於近期在傑克森洞(Jackson Hole)央行年會的演說則再度提醒投資人,實際的減債時間與規模將取決於好幾項數據。

首先是美國勞動市場。美國失業率過去一年大幅降低,但跟疫情前水準相比仍偏高。儘管多數失業救濟金已停發,但勞動參與率尚未恢復正常,高頻就業數據的波動也相當大,且最新薪酬數據也遠不如預期。總的來看,以目前美國勞動市場的現況,不適合快速或大幅升息。

還有一項在聯準會的減債策略中扮演重要關鍵因素,則為通膨。年初美國通膨率創高後,因疫情而起的供應鏈斷鏈問題與勞動市場供需不平衡仍未解,通膨率因經濟重啟維持高檔。

不過,投資人應該特別留意的是,現階段的高通膨率被認定為曇花一現,許多可能引起通貨緊縮的結構性因素正蠢蠢欲動,像是:科技發展、全球化及人口分布。

永續性

許多永續性相關議題,如可再生能源、減少碳排放,乃至社會凝聚力等,都被納入全球重要政策中。若是第三方組織對於哪些作為能為永續性加分或減分能更了解,或是有更好的衡量方法,就有利讓各國政府與投資人得以監控,甚至得以對跨產業與跨資產類別發揮影響力。投資人一定要知道的是,這樣的趨勢是可能影響金融市場表現的。

舉例來說,拜登政府希望2021年第四季推動一項金額高達4兆美元的新法案,將對基礎建設提供額外支出與獎勵,同時將針對氣候變遷的減緩與調適方案與社會援助方案,提供額外的支出與獎勵。

這些額外支出的財源可能部分來自加稅,為塑造更永續的經濟體,如何在獎勵與懲罰之間取得平衡,將是重要課題,且會對不同的產業與資產類別產生不同的影響。

資產配置策略

儘管各資產類別都陷入歷史低利水準,以長線眼光來看,股票市場還是比固定收益市場更具吸引力。

股票的風險溢酬在2021年夏天微幅提升,主要是背後有企業獲利成長支撐,且債券殖利率走低,也提供降低政府公債曝險、增加股票部位的機會。整體來說,M&G投資目前對債券存續期態度較為謹慎,但預估殖利率升幅有限,且如果成長前景走疲的話,配置政府公債仍是不錯的分散投資選項。

在「永續」投資趨勢上,M&G投資則看到長線機會,包括:可再生能源、循環經濟,以及公營住宅。另一個相對看好的資產則是主題式的新興市場債,原因在於考量過去幾個月的發行情況及其相對弱勢的表現。

總結來說,M&G投資預期將因經濟持續復甦,且部分特定領域帶來的長線成長動能而受惠,過程中也不可背棄分散投資原則,如此一來,當機會來敲門時,還能保有隨時調整資產配置的靈活性。

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