【M&G Insight】金融市場預測 看這四大關鍵影響

從疫情爆發以來,徹底影響全球經濟、生活運作模式,預測2021年未來經濟趨勢發展前,必須先思考與 2020 年相比,2021 年有什麼不同?除了疫情,世界上幾個重要的政經主旋律,已經發生了變化,新世代的英國債券基金天王Richard Woolnough 伍諾德表示,短期觀察不會有大幅度結構性改變,但回歸長期經濟前景,下面四大關鍵性影響,勢必對未來造成衝擊,也直接影響到投資人的配置佈局。

關鍵影響1:拜登成為美國總統

如果沒有病毒,川普會勝選嗎?當然有可能,但他輸了。隨著拜登上任,改變最重要的一件事,就是政策會往「左」靠攏。民主黨會怎麼做?簡單說就是花錢徵稅,因此,政府必須先行投資,「花錢、花錢、再花錢」正是民主黨的施政主軸,大量支出後再想辦法徵稅。希望建立一個平等的社會,創造截然不同的經濟環境、更有利於增長的經濟環境;政府角色將比以往更積極,因此物價比之前更容易攀升。美國總統的替換影響全球政經發展,這是未來與過去一年最不一樣的地方。

關鍵影響2:新冠肺炎影響重要國際組織的改變

面對新冠肺炎,無論是美國還是英國,單一國家政府反應相對容易,各國有其解決之道。但在歐元區,事情會更複雜、更難解決。但也因為疫情,歐元區的成員終於了解到必須面對歐盟結構性的問題,他們第一次決定推動歐盟共同所得稅(communal funding)。

伍諾德表示這真的非常重要,促使歐元成為更穩固的貨幣,歐洲政府的債券市場與以往大相逕庭,歐洲各國真正開始承擔財政責任,成為彼此真正的夥伴。美國也開始真正幫助較弱的國家、幫助窮人。這種態度很明顯地顯示,全球政府在往向左派傾斜。如此,至少在短期內對經濟增長會非常有利,與此同時卻也增加了通膨的壓力。

另一件發生變化的導火線,是去年最引人注目的大事「油價跌至負值」,讓石油輸出國組織(OPEC)意識到,石化產業面臨的重大挑戰,全世界都希望轉向碳中和,這個挑戰已存在多時,他們早知道必須應付這種逆風,而去年負油價事件,讓他們體會到這狂風來得又快又急。在去年上演暴跌驚魂記後,美國也在研究如何支撐油價,這與石油輸出國組織立場一致。換句話說,石油輸出國組織再次變得穩固強大,他們可以控制油價,這又是造成通貨膨脹的重要因子。

關鍵影響3:央行如何面對「零利率的困境」

中央銀行多年以來都是利率最重要的控制者,每當他們想抑制通貨膨脹時,就會推高利率,想要緩解通貨膨脹時,就會將利率降低。但為應付新冠肺炎造成的衰退,歐洲央行將利率降低到負0.1%,影響便是,負利率時代下存款價值只會越來越降低,這也是伍諾德所謂的「零利率的困境」,如何逃離「零利率的枷鎖」(Zero Band)便成為央行重大課題!
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各國央行在控制匯率上,扮演非常主動、積極的角色,從 2000 年以後來看,利率在 2005 年和 1906 年回升然後下降,之後很長一段時間都保持在相對低的水準。
*資料來源:Bloomberg 彭博社,利率走勢圖(數字代表利率從高峰到谷底的波動幅度),2021年2月28日。
*註:過去的數據表現並不能作為未來數據結果的依據。

央行將鼓勵通貨膨脹逐步上升,一旦通膨達到 2%、3%、4%,讓經濟成長、就業增加,經濟便可往充分就業方向靠攏,那麼利率就可順理成章恢復到 1%、2%、3%,這便是全球央行的策略及想法,需要逃離零利率的枷鎖。這是對未來投資非常重要的影響關鍵,意味著「通膨即將來臨」,對債券投資人來說,需要慎選好的基金操作團隊。

關鍵影響4:信貸市場回歸專業分析

信貸市場的運作方式與經濟周期非常相似,當經濟疲軟時,人們準時還錢的機率較低,因此必須要付出更多風險溢價,信貸危機在 2008 年和 2009 年非常戲劇化,出現了明顯的 t 型衰退,2020年新冠疫情也造成類似的t 型經濟衰退,伍諾德去年在「這一次真的不一樣 閃崩的市場,將會有一場t型反彈」文章中曾提到過,預期違約率會變得非常非常高,但隨著疫情發展,信貸產品走勢又將如何?

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當經濟疲軟時,人們準時還錢的機率較低,必須要付出更多風險溢價,圖表顯示信用風險溢價的走勢。
*資料來源:Bloomberg 彭博社,ICE 美林美銀指數,2021年3月31日。
*註:過去的數據表現並不能做為未來數據結果的依據。

疫情緩和引導利差下降,表面上看,目前信貸商品價格可能有點貴,處在圖中下方相對高檔的位置,應該賣出,但伍諾德認為,如果經過調整就會發現,有些信貸商品頗具吸引力。

他表示,要更精準掌握未來,必須回到:什麼是「公允價值」(Fair value)的討論上,M&G嘗試將可能的風險溢價調整進信貸商品中,並將他們與持有現金及政府公債做比較。未來的走勢會很像 1995 年到 2005 年之間的狀態。那時金融大環境很健康,貨幣政策長期保持低位、財政政策也相對保守,意味著違約可能性非常低,這時,信用利差就會在低檔區間移動。如果真是這樣,就更需要透過專業分析,才能容易看出信貸商品真正的公允價值。

上述四大關鍵影響,伴隨下半年通膨影響的到來,投資人應及早做好準備,開始配置布局才能達到規避風險。對於如何克服「短期性」波動,建議要回歸專業團隊分析判斷,提供基礎的防禦力;未來依舊受到通膨與利率的影響,可以預期的是,隨著疫苗普及化施打,經濟復甦之日已在眼前。

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