【M&G Insight】下半年投資2大決勝點:通膨與利率

台灣疫情升溫,投資人恐慌跟著上升,面對詭譎多變的市場,M&G多重資產團隊呼籲,投資人應更為謹慎,因為市場總會超乎於「預測」之外,更要特別留意悄升的通膨以及利率的變化。

5月以來金融局勢動盪,通膨的陰影更是徘徊不去,M&G多重資產團隊認為,目前我們正處於關鍵時刻,利率和通膨的變化,將是影響投資組合表現的兩大重要變數。

展望未來,投資人進行一連串預測與決策之前,應該思考以下幾點:(1)大家認為是「顯而易見」的事件,是否已經反應在價格當中?(2)由基本需求上升及供應鏈受阻所帶動的短期通膨,是否為市場共識?若未考量上述這些問題,那麼將無助於事。

如今,評估通膨和利率走勢,跟預估多重資產的報酬率幾乎同樣重要。而M&G多重資產團隊早已將利率走向及通膨可能情境,納入建構多元資產投資組合的評估中。

關注通膨和利率 重新規劃投資組合

「通膨」和「利率」是目前不能忽視的兩大影響力,更是建構投資組合的重要因素。觀察過去30年中,低利率對投資組合帶來強大影響,更為成長性資產(如股票)及對利率敏感資產(例如債券)帶來強勁的總報酬收益。

時間回到2020年夏天以來,當時公債殖利率上升,以及股市、公司債券的多頭走勢齊頭並進,而各國的利率政策幾乎沒有變化,可視為「良性的利率環境」,其中,高收益市場多頭,與投資人對全球經濟增長的樂觀預期,更呈現正相關發展,隨著市場恐慌情緒減弱,投資人風險偏好也開始改善。

投資從過去學習 殷鑑不遠 

過去也有不少同樣的例子,例如1990年代末、2000年代初至中期,以及2016至2017年中期之間,當時政策開始引導利率上揚,投資人對企業利潤增長的預期高,對市場波動的容忍度也強,因此抵銷利率上升的影響,願意投資風險較大的資產,也得到不錯的收益。

在上述這些階段中,通膨與利率上升的相關性並不高,更直接地說,通膨並不是因為經濟成長而推升的。儘管企業實質獲利不強,但因為獲利增長幅度仍領先通膨,使得投資於股市的吸引力,比持有現金或部分債券都更高。

M&G出招 降低通膨與惡性升息風險

持續不斷的「惡性」升息,會讓可投資標的變得很少,如果升息與通貨膨脹率大幅上升相關,持有現金將是危險的作法。但若某項資產本身價錢已經很高,投資人又用過高的溢價取得抗通膨保障,那麼一旦通膨真的降臨,結果將令人失望。

因此,M&G提供以下投資建議:

持有具有抵抗通膨或利率上升的資產,例如抗通膨債券或浮動利率債券。

投資於可伴隨通貨膨脹或利率上升增長的股票或債券,例如「週期性」股票或銀行類股。

投入「不動產」,例如房地產、基礎設施或大宗物資等資產,可以發揮抗通膨作用,但不能天真地相信買進後就能提供永遠的保護

投資人可以在通縮要結束的此時,檢視現行原物料走勢,驗證過去的經驗法則是否仍然適用。除了個別資產外,投資人宜採用多重資產配置和主動管理方法,規避風險。

從長期角度來看,目前不少重要資產已經欠缺吸引力。靈活的選擇能力、動態調整投資組合,以及能克服短期「間歇性」波動、進而取得獲利,都是非常重要的關鍵。

展望未來 看好長天期公債保護力

這陣子,投資人開始擔心通膨,把成長視為理所當然,但未來真的很難說。M&G基金經理人安德魯(Steven Andrew)表示,如果投資人目標在於確保穩定收入,可用公債擔任壓艙石的角色,提供最基礎的防禦部位。當然,利率上升可能讓這些傳統收入帶來不小的壓力,因此建議搭配股票,例如因利率上升而受惠的銀行類股,構建均衡的投資組合。

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