摘要

 

日本央行(BOJ)今年1月將政策利率從0.25%調升至0.5%,是自2024年7月以來再度升息,市場更認為今年將持續升息腳步。瀚亞投資認為,日本升息主要考量資本支出與薪資數據等因素,研判經濟將處於溫和增長趨勢,企業獲利成長將超過10%,加上長期資金流入等多元驅動力,將持續為2025年日股提供支撐,建議投資人持續布局日股基金。


經濟溫和、企業獲利雙重支撐

根據高盛證券12/8研究報告分析,假設美元兌日圓155的基本情境下,2025年財年EPS成長率可上看10.7%;而TOPIX未來12個月預期本益比14.3倍時,指數基本落點預期將從原本2,900點上調至3,100點。也就是說,在經濟溫和成長及EPS成長突出的雙重帶動下,高盛上調日本未來3~12個月指數表現,有機會上看逾10%漲幅。

japan_202502_1.jpg

資料來源:Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Research Team,瀚亞投信整理,2024年12月6日。

瀚亞投資則指出,日本是成熟市場與新興市場的交集點,經濟正循環的背後有薪資成長作為支撐,上調大盤落點也隱含著對於2025年薪資上調的樂觀預期,持續看好日本股市的基本面。

2025年四大投資動力啟動

進入2025年,日本除了有經濟溫和支撐,還有哪些題材可期?瀚亞投資指出,將有四大投資動力題材發酵,包括巴菲特效應、財務重整4.0、世博會舉辦、資金湧入等等。其中,2025年日本將舉辦EXPO大阪世界博覽會,預計將有超過150個國家、2800萬人次湧入日本,不只科技股,包括銀行、服務業、交通運輸、旅遊休閒、通訊等全產業預期也將受惠。

除了巴菲特效應所帶來的資金效益,日本退休金、外資法人機構的長期資金流入,也是推動日股的動力之一,從日本企業股票回購達到歷史新高、日本退休金機構數兆資金進場、外資法人/退休金機構陸續進場等可見端倪。以日本最大投資機構政府退休金GPIF為例,預計將100兆日圓轉向公開市場、進行主動型投資,其中約有1/4預計將流入日本國內股票市場。

此外,NISA個人投資者制度開跑後,預計也將推動日本儲蓄資金流入日本股票。截至2024 年 10 月,透過NISA購買最多的前10大股票都是日本公司股票,其中一半屬於資訊通訊或運輸業,顯示日本當地投資人主要關注成長型股票,並且以股票直接投資及共同基金為主要工具。

japan_202502_2.jpg

資料來源: Bloomberg, 瀚亞投資整理, 2024年。

日股基金投資 多元幣別布局

瀚亞投資-日本動力股票基金提供多元幣別可選擇,包括Aj日圓、A美元避險、A美元以及Az南非幣避險、Aa澳幣避險等,而基金團隊操作擁有三大特色:

一、 集中持股 由下而上主動操作:投資風格注重公司價值,由下而上尋找長期具成長題材,但被低估的標的,目標持股在30~50檔,操作靈活、不受限於大盤指數。
二、 瞄準中小型股成長動能:本基金在汽車、金融等先前表現優異的持股中進行獲利了結與調整,將獲利轉向其他價格價更低的投資機會。此外,不同於市場多跟隨指數型基金,本基金持有約4成布局於中小型股,看好中小型股尚未發威,日本國內內需將帶動中小企業漲勢。
三、 對日圓變動較不敏感:保守使用長期平均匯率(USD/JPY=120)作參數,即使日圓未來有所走強,基金持股平均仍保有上漲潛能,50%的持股具有海外收入來源。

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