摘要

 

印度股市連三月維持多頭格局,並屢創新高,突破 85,000 點。瀚亞投信表示,聯準會啟動降息周期,且美國經濟數據正向,加上印度通膨數據降溫,央行啟動降息再次浮出檯面,眾多利多加持下,印度股市多頭行情延續,尤其資訊服務、金融、房地產及金屬類股表現最好。


內外資引擎流入 印股走勢反攻向上

根據瀚亞投資-印度溫度計最新指標顯示,2024 年 8 月上升至 123.4,處「加碼債券部位區」。除了可續抱印度股市,也可伺機加碼印度債券。

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示, 印度股市 8 月仍受到外部因素影響而震盪,所幸利多消息簇擁,內外資雙雙流入下,印股震盪後反攻向上,多頭格局延續至 9 月。

ICICI 保誠資產管理表示,印度近十年來消費與基礎建設成長根本驅動力依舊穩健,有利的人口紅利、人均收入上升、數位轉型、強勁的企業資產負債表、中央財政赤字得以控制等,使印股多頭環境可以持續。

不過,雖然印度總體經濟看起來很強勁,但股市估值並不便宜,與中小型股相比,大型權值股的估值較合理,建議投資人應以多元資產的配置方式,參與印度成長契機。

由於印度債供需動態穩定,有利於印度固定收益資產行情。聯準會啟動降息周期,使印度債券殖利率上行風險有限,預計在政府支出、外國投資組合流入及信貸成長放緩之際,流動性將繼續保持穩健。

印度降低財政赤字 奠定中長線經濟發展的穩健

瀚亞印度基金經理人林庭樟表示,印度新政府日前公布兼顧平衡與成長方向的施政預算,一如莫迪執政以來的政策方針,持續在印度財政政策與資源配置做系統性改革; 近年來並加速降低公共債務比率,進一步奠定印度在中長期經濟發展與結構上的穩定與健全。

林庭樟表示,從最新的印度央行利率會議中再度得以確認印度目前的通膨 正朝溫和下行趨勢進行,同時經濟維持穩定增長態勢。結合最新公告的企業季報與展望,雖然目前評價相較周邊經濟體為高,但以明年度的企業獲利做評估,印度將有望出現明顯的股價上漲空間。

圖、印度溫度計分數:123.4
eastspring-india-thermometer-202409.png

資料來源:ICICI PRUDENTIAL,2024/8

印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔 GDP 比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。ICICI 保誠資產管理公司是由印度當地最大民營銀行 ICICI Bank 及英國保誠集團(Prudential plc)共同成立之資產管理公司,目前固定收益資產管理金額為全印度最大。

★ ★ 瀚亞印度溫度計指數是根據印度市場中多項投資指標設立評價模型,並依據最終數據劃將投資建議分為「積極加碼股票、加碼股票部位、股債均衡配置、加碼債券部位,及股票落袋為安」等區間。

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