【印度溫度計】新創科技股IPO狂吸金 印度牛市進行式

今年來印度IPO市場熱潮不斷,受惠疫情帶來的需求倍增,科技新創公司如Paytm和Zomato皆創下市值超過10億美元的紀錄,資金持續湧入,也為印度股市續添熱度,瀚亞投資觀察印度總體情勢,認為印度股市仍是「牛市進行式」。

根據高盛統計,印度新創公司2021年以來累積籌資超過100億美元,超越過去三年的總和,替印度股市增添大把柴火,且預估印度股市規模有機會在三年內突破5兆美元,成為全球第五大股市。

印股展望:內外資同步加碼 牛市進行式

印度SENSEX指數9月曾突破6萬點新高,今年來印度股市上漲超過兩成,但印度牛市尚未結束,主要來自於強勁的財政支援、具體的宏觀計畫、大規模的IPO熱潮,以及疫苗接種不斷推進,皆支撐了國內外投資者的情緒。

國際市場維持寬鬆環境,加上印度股市強勁表現,法人8月份持續買進印度股市,外國機構投資者(FII)於印度股市由賣轉買,相較於7月的賣超1,131億盧比,在8月買超208 億盧比;國內機構投資者(DII)和共同基金也同在8月大幅加碼印度股票,分別買超689億盧比以及1,030億盧比。

印債展望:債券表現穩定 關注聯準會動向

印度債券近期表現穩定,主因第二季稅收成長83%,不僅大幅優於市場跟政府預期,也再次創下新高紀錄,減輕政府償債壓力。此外,印度政府在2022財年預計發債12兆盧比,與去年持平,有利支撐印度債券價格走勢。

針對未來印度債券觀察重點,雖然印度央行已經將全年CPI上調至5.7%,但仍須留意印度通貨膨脹(CPI)是否獲得控制,還有印度稅收來源的穩定度。同時美國公債殖利率以及美元走勢,也將對印度政府公債殖利率、印度盧比帶來影響,須持續觀察美國聯準會動向。

溫度計指標:維持股市水位 加碼債券防禦

根據瀚亞投資與ICICI保誠資產管理提供的印度溫度計指數顯示,最新數據來到133.5,連續多個月位在「加碼債券部位」區間。隨著印度股市持續朝歷史新高挑戰,建議投資人將印度債券納入資產配置中,可加碼瀚亞印度策略收益債券基金(本基金有相當比重投資於非投資等級之高風險債券且配息來源可能為本金)穩健資產,並利用定期定額分批瀚亞印度基金擴大部位,參與印度股票牛市。

印度股債評價指數(溫度計):

最新指標數字:133.5    配置(加碼債券部位區) 
1-india-20211004
資料來源:ICICI保誠資產管理公司, 2021/8
印度股債評價指數之評價模型是根據本益比、股價淨值比、政府債收益率以及市值佔GDP比重等參數綜合評估。指標僅供參考之用,請勿視為基金買賣之邀約或其他任何投資之建議 。

 
本基金經金融監督管理委員會同意生效,惟不表示絕無風險。本基金得投資於高收益債券,由於高收益債券之信用評等未達投資等級或未經信用評等,且對利率變動的敏感度甚高,故本基金可能會因利率上升、市場流動性下降,或債券發行機構違約不支付本金、利息或破產而蒙受虧損。本基金不適合無法承擔相關風險之投資人。本公司以往之經理績效不保證基金之最低投資收益;本公司除盡善良管理人之注意義務外,不負責本基金之盈虧,亦不保證最低之收益,投資人申購前應詳閱基金公開說明書。本基金適合能承受較高風險之非保守型投資人。本基金得投資於高收益債券,故投資人投資本基金不宜占其投資組合過高之比重。本基金最高可投資基金總資產15%於符合美國Rule 144A債券,該債券屬私募性質,較可能發生流動性不足,財務訊息揭露不完整或因價格不透明導致波動性較大之風險,投資人投資前須留意相關風險。投資於基金受益憑證部分可能涉有重複收取經理費。本基金外幣計價受益權單位以美元及人民幣計價,如投資人以其他非本基金計價幣別之貨幣換匯後投資本基金,須自行承擔匯率變動之風險。當美元及人民幣相對其他貨幣貶值時,將產生匯兌損失。因投資人與銀行進行外幣交易有賣價與買價之差異,投資人進行換匯時須承擔買賣價差,此價差依各銀行報價而定。此外,投資人尚須承擔匯款費用,且外幣匯款費用可能高於新臺幣匯款費用。投資人亦須留意外幣匯款到達時點可能因受款行作業時間而遞延。本基金人民幣計價受益權單位之人民幣匯率主要係採用離岸人民幣匯率(即中國離岸人民幣市場的匯率,CNH)。人民幣目前受大陸地區對人民幣匯率管制、境內及離岸市場人民幣供給量及市場需求等因素,將會造成大陸境內人民幣結匯報價與離岸人民幣結匯報價產生價差(折價或溢價)或匯率價格波動,故人民幣計價受益權單位將受人民幣匯率波動之影響。同時,人民幣相較於其他貨幣仍受政府高度控管,中國政府可能因政策性動作或管控金融市場而引導人民幣升貶值,造成人民幣匯率波動,投資人於投資人民幣計價受益權單位時應考量匯率波動風險。基金配息率不代表基金報酬率,且過去配息率不代表未來配息率,投資人於獲配息時須一併注意基金淨值之變動。基金的配息可能由基金的收益或本金中支付。任何涉及由本金支出的部份,可能導致原始投資金額減損。本基金之收益分配由經理公司依基金孳息收入情況,決定應分配之收益金額。本基金進行配息前未先扣除應負擔之相關費用。本基金配息組成項目,包括近12個月內由本金支付配息之相關資料,可於經理公司網站查詢。基金配息係依據基金投資組合之平均股利率、債息及匯率避險收入為計算基礎,並預估未來一年於投資標的所取得之前述收益,並考量當下已經實際取得的股利和可能發生之資本損益,適度調節並決定基金當月配息類股之配息率,以達成每月配息之頻率。經理公司視投資組合標的股利率、債息及匯率避險收入等水準變化及基金績效表現調整配息率,故配息率可能會有些微變動,若投資標的整體收益率未來有上升或下降之情形時,基金之配息來源可能為本金。此外,年化配息率之訂定應以平均年化投資組合收益率為參考基準,惟經理公司保留一定程度的彈性調整空間,並以避免配息過度侵蝕本金為原則。由於轉換公司債同時兼具債券與股票之特性,因此除面臨債券之利率風險、流動性風險與信用風險外,還可能因標的股票價格波動,而造成該轉換公司債之價格波動。投資非投資等級或未經信用評等之轉換公司債因無信用評等或非投資等級因素,其利率風險、外匯波動風險或債券發行違約風險都高於一般債券。有關基金應負擔之費用已揭露於基金之公開說明書或投資人須知中,投資人可至下列網址查閱:公開資訊觀測站:http://newmops.tse.com.tw、瀚亞證券投資信託股份有限公司:http://www.eastspring.com.tw或於本公司營業處所:台北市松智路1號4樓,電話:(02)8758-6699索取/查閱。瀚亞投信獨立經營管理

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