摘要
我們在本文列出瀚亞專家線上研討會「現在是重新考慮債券的時機嗎？」﹙Is it time to relook at bonds?﹚的重點；其中，PPM America 的 Mark Redfearn 及瀚亞投資的 Clement Chong 分享了他們對於美國及亞洲債券市場的投資觀點。
1. 估值具吸引力
新冠肺炎疫情爆發、全球央行紛紛降息並大量購買債券，導致負收益債券的市值飆破 18 兆美元1。此後，隨著全球利率上升，負收益債券已經銳減至完全絕跡。
許多國家的債券殖利率當前正處於多年高位，為投資人提供十年一遇的機會──投資人既能享受獲利，也有望在未來數月（或數年）殖利率走低時獲得資本利得。
圖 1 顯示，在過去 13 年，以約 5.75% 之水平購買美國債券，5 年遠期報酬率為每年 6%。該圖也呈現，根據歷史數據，殖利率從現在水平上升的情況非常罕見，反映出當前殖利率為投資人提供非常吸引的進場點。
圖1、初始殖利率與遠期報酬的關係密切
資料來源︰FactSet、晨星。彭博美國信用指數由2005年1月至2018年7月期間的每月殖利率，以及由2005年1月至2009年12月期間到2018年8月至2023年7月期間的5年遠期報酬。
2. 基準利率終將回落
基準利率不太可能永遠處於高位。在 9 月的聯邦公開市場委員會議（FOMC, Federal Open Market Committee）中，聯準會表示將在 2024 年開始降息。未來數月，隨著美國經濟及通膨進一步放緩，債券市場有機會早於聯準會作出行動，債券殖利率可能在聯準會首次降息前開始回落。因此，投資人可以轉為關注債券的上行潛力，不必將目光局限於當前利率水平。
近期油價飆升引發市場對通膨及降息前景的擔憂。不過，全球經濟成長放緩加上美國駕車旺季結束，將導致石油需求下跌。此外，沙烏地阿拉伯不太可能冒著進一步失去市場份額的風險，無限期延長減產計畫。上述因素都有助於抑制油價。
相較於美國，亞洲的通膨更受控制──因為亞洲沒有經歷同樣程度的供需失衡（尤其是勞動力市場）。儘管如此，近期油價及食品價格的升勢仍然值得關注，雖然根據過往經驗，亞洲央行已顯示其願意透過補貼措施來紓緩高油價的影響。
美國經濟至今為止的韌性，讓聯準會有信心長期維持高利率。然而，高利率帶來的所有影響尚未被完全反映，特別是在住房抵押貸款（多數家庭持有 30 年期固定利率抵押貸款）、商業不動產（CRE）以及企業債務領域。若美國經濟惡化速度快於預期，則會促使聯準會提前轉向。亞洲央行可能緊隨其後。
3. 債券再次成為分散投資的工具
鑑於目前的殖利率，債券能再次發揮分散投資的作用──債券收益可以為投資組合中的潛在股市波動帶來緩衝。經濟成長的前景依然不明朗，為了審慎起見，投資人應重新關注投資組合的獲利及保本能力。雖然股票受惠於獲利擴張帶來的升勢，但債券屬於低 Beta 策略；根據當前殖利率，債券有望提供相當於股票的報酬，但波動性將低於股票。
如上文所述，利率上升對美國經濟的影響仍在逐步浮現，最終可能會影響企業淨利潤及獲利。亞洲方面，中國經濟仍在成長，但速度遠低於投資人過去習慣或預期的。儘管人口眾多的國家（如印度、印尼及菲律賓等）表現相對穩健，中國及已發展經濟體的成長放緩，將影響亞洲依賴出口的經濟體前景。
然而，投資人在債券配置方面仍應保持謹慎──2022 年 10 月與 2023 年 3 月的債市大幅拋售事件2皆反映了市場深度及流動性低於預期。
何處尋覓投資機會？
美國及亞洲方面，由於投資等級債信用狀況較佳，預計能承受較高的融資成本。美國投等債的存續期間約為非投等債的兩倍3，顯示未來數年殖利率下跌時，美國投等債的平均資本增值有望高於非投等債。在亞洲，投等債的最低殖利率（Yeild-to-Worst）達到 2008 年以來的最高點。見圖 2。在聯準會決議轉向時這將帶來資本增值潛力。
圖2、亞洲投等債市場正處於最佳位置
資料來源︰摩根大通、彭博，2023 年 9 月。摩根大通亞洲信用指數 – 投資等級債券指數。
美國投資等級債市場中，A 級債券相較 BBB 級債券更受青睞。此外，市場更偏好公共事業、能源及大型國家主要銀行等，這些受嚴格監管的產業往往有較佳的資本狀況。同時，預計美元將繼續受利差支撐。
亞洲方面，市場偏好地方政府債券──尤其是財政能力與經常帳狀況較強、通膨環境佳並較有降息彈性的國家。由於短期內亞洲貨幣可能因人民幣疲弱而受壓，較適當的做法是在貨幣對沖基礎上評估相關估值。以貨幣對沖為基礎，新加坡元企業債券及馬來西亞政府債券的估值看似具吸引力。除此之外，新加坡元企業債券也更加穩定。
PPM America 是一間總部位於美國的資產管理公司，也是瀚亞美國債券策略的分投資經理。請點擊此連結觀看網路研討會重播。
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1 彭博。2020年。
2 美國地區型銀行產業危機。
3 採用的計量指數為彭博美國企業債券指數及洲際交易所美國銀行美國高收益債券指數，截至8月31日，有效存續期間分別為6.92年及3.60年。
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